Let’s play “Should I or Shouldn’t I”. Feedback is always welcome through the website in the comments box or on my Twitter feed — @brian22goodwin.
Should I or Shouldn’t I…….
…trade up to the #1 overall pick in my draft?
Not this season, at least. I’ve always been a big believer in grabbing the high point producers – and as many of them as you can. As in most drafts, the guys picking aren’t total clowns (right?) so they follow Yahoo! or CBS or ESPN or some other magazine. Ultimately, they aren’t out there drafting players who don’t belong – at least in the first round or 2. So if I’m to get a couple or three of these point-hogs, I have to get creative and find a trading partner who believes in the opposite of what I do – he would rather stockpile a bunch of 2nd, 3rd, 4th round picks and let me take his 1st rounder.
More often than not, that is my strategy in the weeks leading up to the draft. (It’s fun, it’s entertaining, and it’s really what I believe as far as putting the best team together.) This year, however, I will venture down a more conservative path. Perhaps because I’m still nursing some burns from the past few seasons; perhaps, also, because I’ve seen what happens with these big point scorers – Andrew Luck, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, LeVeon Bell for instance from last year. All hurt or just flat out underwhelming. Either way, it’s not worth trading up for them. Even if you have your eyes on the players that are being projected to be in the running for that number 1 spot this season – Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Bell, Odell Beckham, it’s awfully risky.
I love the excitement of making pre-draft trades and mixing it up, but this year I stress caution.
…enjoy drafting at the turn this year (10 and 11 in 10 team leagues, for example)?
Most years the turn is a fine spot to be, and this year is no different. You’re sure to have a couple top RBs sitting there, who people passed on because they went the WR route in the first round. The top TE will likely be on the board as well as WRs in that 2-5 range.
It’s a pretty good spot to be if you were only taking one player, let alone two! Imagine snagging AP and Gronk or Dez and David Johnson. For those of you who won’t want to wait so long for your QB, this spot works for you too – although I strongly urge against a QB selection before round 8 at the absolute earliest. You could come away with Cam and Gronk or A-Rod and AP.
…roll the dice with some rookies in the middle rounds of my draft?
Last year’s outstanding rookie class really is going to have people rethinking how and when they take these first year players. I’m not saying to avoid rookies at all costs – instead, I’m cautioning you to not reach on any. The ones who will go off the draft board early are not the guys I’m referring to. For instance, Ezekiel Elliott should be a first round pick – maybe top 5. I’m fine with that. I’m just saying don’t try and find the next Todd Gurley in the 3 or 4th round like last season. It doesn’t happen often and it’s a terrible risk.
Research the rookie class ahead of your draft. Put some stars next to some names that you think could be impact players on the field this year for their respective teams – be sure to consider the team they play for, their schedule/division, the head coach they play for, and any injuries they dealt with in college. Then in the later rounds of the draft once you have build a decent amount of depth, go ahead a pick a few of those guys that you starred. You have depth already so these picks won’t kill you if they turn sour, and by waiting you allow other owners in your league to take some of these rookies – leaving proven veterans on the board, who will continue to add depth to your roster.