Week 5 NFL Picks

Admittedly, I was struggling to pick games through the first three weeks of the season. But then week 4 happened. It was like a flash down from the heavens. It was a tidal wave of joy and excitement. It was, yours truly, absolutely making it look easy!!!! How does a perfect 15-0 sound? To quote my boy, Kirk Cousins, “You like that?!”

I spot on nailed the Chiefs-Broncos score, 27-23, and called Dallas by 2 and Tennessee by a field goal. Against the spread, I wasn’t too shabby either, if you don’t mind me saying, going 11-3-1.

Some weeks you got it — and in week 4, I HAD it!!! Through the opening four weeks, I’m 23-22-2 ATS and 31-15 straight up. Let’s hope we can replicate last week’s performance in week 5.

Get to a TV Now

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Kansas City

What a classic matchup of a sensational offense against a fast, physical defense. So many questions arise when digging deeply into this game. Can the KC receivers get separation? Will Blake Bortles be allowed to throw the ball on first down? Will Pat Mahomes make his first big NFL mistake? This matchup has it all. This Jags defense will be unlike anything Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have faced this season. How will they adjust if the throws aren’t there? I expect Jacksonville OC Nathaniel Hackett to open the playbook for Bortles, like he did in week 2 against the Patriots. One or two turnovers by Mahomes in his own territory might be enough to give the Jaguars the edge. Jaguars, 27-20

Atlanta (+3) at Pittsburgh

Neither team plays defense and both offenses have the firepower to break the scoreboard. Whoever wins will need every ounce of explosiveness in order to outscore the other. Both teams desperately need this one. I typically avoid Matt Ryan on the road and outdoors. But I’m certain he can torch this Steelers D. Falcons, 38-34

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3)

I’d say this is a bigger game for Minnesota — in particular their defense. But the Eagles haven’t exactly been very impressive on either side of the ball, themselves. Last year, the offense was a league-best 33% at converting 3rd down and 8 or more yards. Through 4 games in 2018, the Eagles are at 15%. That’s a major drop off and helps explain why that offense doesn’t look as efficient as it did a year ago. On defense, the Philly secondary is weakened without safety Rodney McLeod, and relying on rookie cornerback Avonte Maddox has not yielded great results. The Vikings come to the Linc with stud wideouts, who are coming off a spectacular offensive showing in week 4 against the Rams. If the Eagles are going to slow Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, it will start with them putting pressure on the QB. It’s also worth noting how different this Eagles team is at home than on the road. Eagles, 31-24

I’ll Watch

Indianapolis at New England (-10)

The TNF game should be unwatchable, and, as a Pats fan, I’m hoping it is. Julian Edelman’s return should have positive effects on all aspects of the offense. Patriots, 31-13

Denver (+2) at Jets

This game feels like a “WWE Loser Goes Home” Match. The winner can right the ship for a week or so, but the loser will have finally met their fate after having intermittent moments of hope in the first 4 weeks of the season. Broncos, 23-17

Baltimore at Cleveland (+3)

In a road loss at Oakland in his first career start, Baker Mayfield still put up the numbers and, more importantly, still gave Cleveland the energy they needed to nearly pull off the victory in overtime. This Baltimore defense is a different animal, yes. But Baker may just have enough creativity to give the defense fits. Browns, 24-20

Washington (+6.5) at New Orleans

Washington is sneaky, frisky, under-the radar, kinda/sorta decently good-ish. Their defense is game and Alex Smith limits his mistakes. They just seem like the type of team that won’t ever get blown out, and at the same time can embarrass an opponent if they don’t take the Redskins seriously. Also, Washington has had 2-plus weeks to prep for this game. Redskins, 31-27

Thank you, But I’ll Pass

Miami at Cincinnati (-6)

I think Miami showed their true colors in week 4 against New England. Their 3-0 start was perfect example of a team that didn’t lose those games, but really didn’t win them either. Bengals, 27-17

Giants at Carolina (-7)

Bad offensive lines don’t travel well in the NFL. And, boy oh boy do the Giants have a bad line. Carolina’s defense should be up to the task of limiting the Giants running game and OBJ. Panthers, 24-13

Rams (-7) at Seattle

Put me down as someone who is utterly confused by this line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to double digits by the time Sunday rolls around. Rams are cruising on the offensive side of the ball while the Seahawks struggle to put points on the board. No way Seattle can keep pace. Rams, 38-17

Green Bay (-1.5) at Detroit

Has a team ever had such an unimpressive 3 touchdown, shutout win than what the Packers had last weekend over Buffalo? And I’m not talking about our interpretations of the game — I’m talking about how the QB felt afterwards. Aaron Rodgers is masterful at manipulating and poking at his teammates (and coaches) in a way that leads to production and improvement. I’d expect a version of the Green Bay offense this weekend in Detroit that A-Rod is quite pleased with. Packers, 24-20

Cancel My NFL Ticket Package Please

Tennessee at Buffalo (+3.5)

I hate this game. After wins over the Jags and Eagles in back to back weeks, it would be reasonable to think this could be a major “let-down” game for the Titans. It all adds up — the Bills can play defense, they’re at home, and Marcus Mariota can’t possible play as well as he played against Philly. Tennessee wins ugly and I don’t imagine they’ll beat any opponent by more than 10 points all year. Geez, did I say I hate this game? Titans, 23-20

Arizona at San Francisco (-4.5)

Josh Rosen has gotten his feet wet the last couple weeks against the Bears and the Chargers. This 49ers defense should feel more like a JV high school team after having faced those two defenses. The Niners were game last weekend, but that’s typical after switching QBs. I would expect quite a fall off from here on out this season for Kyle Shanahan’s bunch. Cardinals, 20-17

Oakland (+5.5) at Chargers

Oakland has been in every game except the opener against the Rams. Derek Carr and the offense might have found something last week — it’s called getting Amari Cooper the ball. Crazy, I know. The Chargers love to shoot themselves in the foot so this one could be closer than it should be. Chargers, 30-27

Dallas at Houston (-3.5)

The Cowboys are probably good enough to beat bad teams this season. Houston’s 1-3 record might make them appear to be a candidate for a Cowboys’ win, but think again. Deshaun Watson is starting to move around with more confidence on that knee and the defense can get after the quarterback. Dak will be running for his life. Texans, 24-17


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

Author: Brian Goodwin

An educator for 15 years. I have a passion for sports and a passion for writing about sports. I'm very excited to run this blog and have conversations with people about relevant topics, mostly pertaining to sports but also in all aspects of life.

One thought on “Week 5 NFL Picks”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.