Week 6 NFL Picks

One minute you’re up, flying high, loving life. The next, you can’t pick a football game to save my life– I mean, YOUR life. This is all hypothetical, of course.

Alright, let’s face it, week 5 was a tough pill to swallow, especially coming off of the great week 4 I had. But, hey, I’m not a sharp. I’m no wiseguy. What do I know about picking NFL games? Was I really supposed to take the Giants and the points on the road  against a good defense ? How did Denver give up 219 rushing yards to Isaiah Crowell? I was supposed to see that coming? Philly at home is supposed to be a gimme; Mason Crosby isn’t supposed to miss 5 freaking kicks (!!!!!); and the Rams should bury the Seahawks. Ugh. Just another week in the NFL.

Before we move to week 6, here’s where we stand, folks: 39-22 straight up and 27-32-3 against the spread. Let’s get a nice little bounce back this week. I’ve got mouths to feed.

Must See Games of the Week

Kansas City (+3) at New England

Speed kills. That’s how the Chiefs win this game. If the Patriots can’t get off the field on third downs and can’t keep up with the weapons that the Chiefs will deploy on offense, this could be ugly. But I have to believe Bill Belichick will have a plan. If they can limit the big plays from Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady and the Pats offense should be able to do their own share of scoring. Patriots, 33-31

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cincinnati

Both offenses can light up the scoreboard. I’d favor Cincy’s defense even though Pittsburgh flashed some explosiveness in getting after Matt Ryan a week ago. If that continues, the Steelers could turn things around. But at the moment, the Bengals have the more balanced attack on offense and have played defense at a more consistent level this season. Bengals 28-27

Tune In

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Atlanta

Will any defender even bother to show up for this one? The over/under is 57.5. Take it!!! Atlanta might be feeling sorry for themselves. We’ll find out. Bucs, 34-31

Chargers at Cleveland (+1)

The battle of 2 inept coaching staffs. I like Baker Mayfield, but playing against this Chargers defense will be a little different than what he’s faced so far. On the other side of the ball, if the Chargers don’t kill themselves with drops and turnovers, Phillip Rivers and company should have enough weapons to give this improved Browns defense trouble. Chargers, 24-20

Philadelphia at Giants (+3)

We know the Giants aren’t good and won’t be. The thing is that the Eagles aren’t either — and it’s not totally clear if they’ll fix their issues. Their defense had to play 35 minutes against the Vikings last Sunday and that’s not a winning script for Philly. Converting third downs and long has been the area the Eagles offense has dropped off the most in comparison to last year. In 2017, they converted at a 30% clip; so far this season, they’re at 15%. Short week, on the road, divisional rival — not a great equation for the defending champs. Giants, 23-21

There’s Potential

Indianapolis at Jets (-2.5)

Somehow, some way the Jets put up over 300 yards of rushing and 500 total yards against the Denver defense last week. That’s a winning formula with a rookie QB. Indy is decimated with injuries across the board — on both sides of the ball. Andrew Luck looks healthy, but he doesn’t have a ton to work with. And if he has to keep throwing 60 times a game, we’ll really find out how that arm is doing. Jets, 24-20

San Francisco (+9.5) at Green Bay

I’d hate to have shared a locker room with Aaron Rodgers this week. The thing is the offense wasn’t bad at all in the second half in Detroit and the defense only looked bad because they were put in tough spots thanks to turnovers on offense. Call me crazy, but I don’t things are nearly as bad as some want to us to think in Green Bay. Pack get right in primetime against a not-very-good 49ers team. Packers, 31-23

Chicago at Miami (+3)

The Fins have come back down to Earth after their 3-0 start. Meanwhile, the Bears have had 2 weeks to hear and read all the praise after they smashed the Bucs and Michell Trubisky tossed a career-best 6 TDs. To me, this is a dangerous spot for the Bears — they’re feeling really good and the Dolphins are wounded, desperate animal. Gimme the animal at home. Dolphins, 20-17

Rams at Denver (+7)

I want to like this game. But the Broncos performance in New York last week was pathetic. Vance Joseph must have been getting jealous with all the talk over Jason Garrett and Bill O’Brien competing to see which coach would get fired first. Bottom line here is the Denver defense has not been good lately and Vonn Miller seems to have sputtered out after a very nice start to the year. But sometimes weird things happen in the NFL. Denver keeps it close. Rams, 27-21

Tune Out

Baltimore at Tennessee (+3)

These two teams mirror each other quite a bit. They both play solid defense and on offense, they want to run the ball, but find themselves passing more than they’d like. Defensively, both rank in the top 7 in yards per game, first downs per game, and third down conversion percentage. So the question becomes, “Who’s offense plays better on Sunday?” I like Baltimore’s supporting cast better, but the Tennessee o-line should be able to protect Marcus Mariota, giving him the edge over Flacco. Titans, 17-16

Carolina (+1) at Washington

Washington’s embarrassing effort on MNF is stuck in my head. And the NFC East looks like a clown show. But let’s keep in mind the Redskins defense is top 5 in yards given up per game, and Cam Newton probably won’t be carving up that predictable zone coverage like Drew Brees did. Carolina is banged up and don’t forget — they were the first to give up 30 points last week to the Giants since the 2015 season. Redskins, 24-21

Arizona (+10.5) at Minnesota

There’s not a single scenario I can invent that has Arizona doing enough in this game, especially after Buffalo went into Minneapolis and popped that Vikings defense for 27 points. But Minnesota’s defense isn’t right — even in the win in Philly, they let the Eagles stay in it until the very end. The offense will play well, but the defense won’t let them pull away. Vikings, 30-20

Gauge Out My Eyeballs

Buffalo (+8.5) at Houston

How does Houston give anyone 8.5 points??!! I thought this was a mistake. I running my betting slip in for this one. Don’t give me “it’s a rookie QB on the road against a good defense.” No chance Houston wins by more than a touch. No freaking way. Texans, 23-20

Seattle v. Oakland (+3)

Ahh, the London Game. I don’t expect either defense to play well. The problem is both offenses have been sloppy this year. Seattle has found a run game, though. That’s the edge. Seahawks, 20-19

Jacksonville (-3) at Dallas

I can’t imagine this Dallas offense getting on track against this Jacksonville defense. There’s just no way. I’m not falling for it. Jaguars, 26-13

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Author: Brian Goodwin

An educator for 15 years. I have a passion for sports and a passion for writing about sports. I'm very excited to run this blog and have conversations with people about relevant topics, mostly pertaining to sports but also in all aspects of life.

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