NFL Week 13 Picks

Let’s not waste any time looking backwards on last week (or the last few weeks for that matter). We’ve got a whole host of interesting lines this week. Four games currently on the slate feature a double-digit favorite — one of them being the Rams who are on the road in Detroit. A fifth game is at more than a touchdown — the Saints giving the Cowboys 7.5 in Dallas. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a mere one game where the teams separated in Vegas by less than a field goal — Baltimore giving 1.5 to the home team, Atlanta.

From the look of things, it doesn’t appear to be some greatly competitive week as far as the match-ups go. So maybe I’ll have an easier time picking games this week after the mess I made all over myself a week ago: 9-6 straight up and 5-10 against the spread. For the year, we’re a healthy 106-53 straight up, but have now fallen into the red with a nasty record of 75-77-8 ATS. Let’s see if we can get some much needed help this week.

Super Watchable

Minnesota (+6) at New England

The Vikings have all the pieces in place to beat the Pats — speed on offense and a defense that can get to the passer. But don’t forget who their quarterback is. Also, the Patriots are 29-3 at home in their last 32 December games. Plus, they will have Gronk, Sony Michel, and Julian Edelman out there. This isn’t a “let-down” game for New England. They’ll be fired up. Patriots, 27-24

Chargers (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

I think I’d be all-in on the Chargers if Melvin Gordon was playing. I read this week that the Steelers haven’t lost consecutive games since 2016 — but I just don’t think they’re as good as L.A. But geez, it scares me when Anthony Lynn is roaming the sidelines. Speaking of the HC, what in the world was Melvin Gordon doing playing against the Cardinals, up 28-10 in the 3rd quarter? Screw it, the Chargers defense and pass rush is plenty reason alone to take them here — despite Lynn. Chargers, 31-27

New Orleans at Dallas (+7.5)

It’s impossible to not love the Saints and their offense. They’ve got one of the most accurate passers of all time, a dynamic running back duo that also may be the greatest ever, and a WR in Michael Thomas, who’s quickly becoming top 5 at his position. Hard to imagine any defense slowing this machine up. Enter the Cowboys. They play the perfect style to combat the New Orleans offensive attack: run the ball, limit the Saints time of possession, and rush the passer. They’re capable of all three of those things. The question is can they execute. Saints, 27-20

Cleveland (+5.5) at Houston

Who would have guessed this would be a headline match-up? But the Browns are exciting and have playmakers on both sides of the ball; while the Texans have only gone ahead and won 8 straight after an 0-3 start. Can the Browns win another road game? My gut says no, but this seems like a nice spot for them to steal one against the Texans, who got off to a shaky start on Monday night against the Titans. Browns, 34-31

Throw on the Game

Baltimore (+1.5) at Atlanta

The Falcons defense has been a stepping stone for offensives all season. Lamar Jackson comes in with a chance to put up some nice numbers against a pass defense that is ranked in the bottom quarter in the league. In addition, the Ravens have run the ball for over 250 yards in Jackson’s two starts — not a good sign for Atlanta, as their run D is tied for 3rd worst in yards per rush. Ravens, 23-20

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Carolina needs to fix their pass defense. They’ve been getting torched and the Bucs are more than capable of moving the ball through the air. If Carolina is going to make a push for the postseason, they’ve got to turn things around now. Panthers, 31-27

What Else is On?

Chicago (-4) at Giants

The Giants offensive line is, well, offensive (that’s too easy). And the Bears have a guy named Khalil Mack. He should feast on Sunday. Bears, 24-16

Denver at Cincinnati (+5)

Two words: Jeff. Driskell. Road games are tough and Denver enters this one with some expectations for the first time all season. If they want to be a playoff team, they show it in here. Broncos, 24-20

Washington at Philadelphia (-6)

Philly’s pass rush should get after Colt McCoy with the dinged up offensive line he has in front of him. Eagles, 23-16

Rams (-10) at Detroit

Two simple questions: how do the Lions score and how do the Lions stop the Rams from scoring? The Rams can score at will and that won’t change at Ford Field. Rams, 38-13

Kansas City at Oakland (+15)

Will the Raiders be able to keep it “close-ish”? I’m probably going to feel like an idiot when the Chiefs are up 35-10 halfway through the 3rd quarter. Chiefs, 31-17

Throw the TV Out the Window

Arizona (+14) at Green Bay

The Packers aren’t ever completely dead as long as Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. By no means are they in the driver’s seat, but if they can win out (and the schedule isn’t difficult), they’ll at least give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Are they motivated to put a whoopin’ on the Cardinals? Packers 34-19

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville

My one worry is how the Colts play in a game on the road that they should dominate. It’s clear as day that the Jags are done this season, and I don’t expect the players to show any ounce of fight over the final 5 weeks, except for Cody Kessler and whoever else ends up playing QB for them. But that’s why this is tricky — the Colts are not an established team yet and I’m not sure they are ready to cut a team’s throat. Colts, 24-17

Buffalo (+5) at Miami

Do I seriously need to break this game down? Buffalo always plays tough. I don’t know if the Dolphins care or not. Bills, 20-12

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

These NFC West divisional games always seem to be closer than they should be. That being said, I don’t think the 49ers have the personnel up front to stop what Seattle wants to do and what they do best, which is run, run, run. And then, oh yeah, there’s Russell Wilson who should be able to take advantage of the Niners pass defense. Seahawks, 27-10

Jets (+10.5) at Tennessee

Geez, Vegas hates the Jets. How can the Titans give anyone 10.5 points? I don’t know who’s showing up for Tennessee. As for the Jets, I don’t hate them — they’re not great, but they don’t embarrass themselves usually. Titans, 24-20


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Episode 105 (“NFL MVP Outsiders”) right here:

Listen to Episode 106 (“Statement Weekend in the NFL & College Football Championship Saturday”) right here:

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

NFL Week 12 Picks

It’s Thanksgiving week and I dare you to tell me a more fun week of regular season football. The whole week is fun — work isn’t really work on a three-day week, you’ve got the biggest drinking night of the year on Wednesday, we get to gorge ourselves on food all day on Thursday, and we get football from noon until bedtime. How can you beat that? (That’s not even taking into account Saturday’s big rivalry games in the college ranks or the full slate of Sunday NFL games that we still get.)

Unfortunately, it’s not all pretty, though. I was unable to shake my bad streak in week 11, going 6-5-2 against the spread and only managing 6-7 straight up. For the season, I’m 70-67-8 ATS and 97-47 straight up. Let’s do week 12. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Thanksgiving Day Slate

Chicago at Detroit (+4)

Expect wackiness in this rivalry game. It’s early on a Thursday, it’s a holiday, the two just met 11 days ago — it’s got all the makings of a weird one. On paper, though, Chicago has all the advantages plus the Lions look to be without Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones. Bears, 22-20

Washington (+7.5) at Dallas

Neither of these teams blow anyone out so 7.5 points either way is a ton of points. I might be in the minority, but I’m not ruling out the Redskins to win this division despite the gruesome injury to Alex Smith. In fact, I think this might be a perfect spot for whoever Jay Gruden puts under center — short week, simplified gameplan, take few risks, run the ball, play defense against a Dallas offense that isn’t very dynamic. Plus it’s Thanksgiving — anything can happen. Redskins, 20-17

Atlanta (+13) at New Orleans

The Saints look primed for a Super Bowl run and the Falcons look dead. However, the Saints have failed to beat a divisional opponent by more than 10 points in their last 14 meetings. I’m assuming the Falcons offense scores some points and keeps it within 2 touchdowns. My expectations are not very high for the dirty birds. Saints, 34-24

Should Watch

Seattle at Carolina (-3.5)

This is a battle between two potential playoff teams. And it should be strength against strength — Seattle’s number rushing attack versus Carolina’s 9th ranked rush defense. Seattle is plenty to good enough to hold their own in this one, but Carolina is a different team at home — 5-0. In fact, the Panthers haven’t scored fewer than 31 points in any home game since their opening against Dallas. Panthers, 23-20

Cleveland (+3) at Cincinnati

Hue’s Revenge Game Part 1. Or is it the Browns Revenge Game? Cincinnati’s defense is playing so badly; they finally allowed fewer than 500 yards last weekend for the first time in a month. Baltimore collected 250 yards rushing against the Bengals in week 11 and Cleveland has shown a propensity for running the ball. Nick Chubb could be in store for a productive afternoon. Browns, 28-24

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver

Could the Steelers slip up here? It feels like that kind of a game — in Mile High, coming off an ugly win against the lowly Jags, and Denver comes in off a win over the Chargers. The problems twofold: (1) the Steelers have a really good offensive line to combat Vonn Miller and the Denver pass rush and (2) Pittsburgh’s playmakers on offense will make life difficult for the Denver secondary. Steelers, 31-24

Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota

If ever Green Bay was going to put up a fight, it’s now. Both teams are in a kinda-sorta “must win” position coming off a couple tough road losses. A loss here doesn’t end either teams’ season, but it sure won’t help as both push for the playoffs. If the Aarons (Rodgers and Jones) have big games, the onus will be on Kirk Cousins to answer. Honestly, I’m not sure he can. Packers, 24-23

Corner TV at the Bar Status

Oakland (+11) at Baltimore

I don’t know if this is unprecedented or not — but I’m going to say it is — a rookie QB giving 11 points in his second career start after a game in which he threw for 150 yards and zero touchdowns and one interception is unprecedented. It will be interesting to see if Baltimore adjusts their offensive plan, knowing that Lamar Jackson rushing 27 times is not sustainable nor is it beneficial for his well-being. Gus Edwards ran for 115 yards last week so maybe that will give Marty Morningweg confidence to let Jackson use more of his arm and less of his legs. Ravens, 24-20

New England at Jets (+9.5)

History would have us assume that the Patriots don’t lose after a bye week and cover the spread. But look more closely and you’ll find that Bill Belichick and crew are only 3-5-1 since 2009 coming off the bye against the spread. Plus, the Jets always play hard at home against New England. Patriots, 27-19

Miami at Indianapolis (-9.5)

The Dolphins are a train-wreck — and yet they’re 5-5 and right in the thick of the wildcard race in the AFC. But the Colts are rolling on offense and defensively they should handle whatever kind of offense Miami throws out there. Colts, 31-17

Giants (+6) at Philadelphia

The Giants have won two straight, but their opponents were the 49ers and the Bucs. Conversely, the Eagles have lost back-to-back games to the Cowboys and the Saints. All this adds up to a game that I won’t watch and can’t see more than a few points separating them. In the end, the Eagles still have a pass rush and can make Eli uncomfortable with his flimsy offensive line. Eagles, 24-20

Tennessee (+6) at Houston

The Texans were lucky to escape D.C. with the win last Sunday. These two teams matchup nicely — good defenses, not consistent enough on offense. Divisional games in the AFC South usually end up being pretty tightly contested. Titans, 23-17

Can’t Do It

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

We talk about how good certain teams are coming off the bye week. The Niners are not one of them. San Fran is winless since 2012 off a bye and also has failed to cover the spread in each of those games. Even more telling, they’ve lost by double digits in each of those weeks going back 2014. Moreover, the 49ers don’t have a pass rush and their secondary shouldn’t give the Tampa Bay’s air attack any problems. Bucs, 30-24

Arizona (+12) at Chargers 

A little of the shine has come off of the Chargers after a couple of disappointing weeks. Yes, they beat the Raiders two weeks ago but it wasn’t dominant; and then last week, we were treated to an “Anthony Lynn-Phillip Rivers Special” when they blew the 4th quarter lead in Denver. This weekend is in Los Angeles, where the Chargers don’t really enjoy much of a home field advantage — 3-1 with a margin of victory of only +9.  Chargers, 27-19

Jacksonville at Buffalo (+3)

Remember when these two played in the playoffs last year? (You didn’t dream it — it really happened.) I could see a weird 15-9 final score with defensive touchdowns and field goals. This is the way the football gods keep things balanced after we watched the Rams and Chiefs put up 105 last Monday night. Jaguars, 17-16


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Ep. 102 (“Thanksgiving Edition Plus Don’t Count the Redskins Out Just Yet”) right here:

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

NFL Week 11 Picks

So I followed up my great week 9 with a clunker in week 10. I went from 10-3 against the spread to 4-9-1 in a matter of a week. But that shouldn’t be any surprise — the NFL prides itself on parity and that carries over in Vegas.

And as the season goes on, expect the playing field to level out more and more (and that’s not a shot at Mexico City). The Action Network put out a really well done article and I won’t try to re-hash it, but basically teams all  meet in the middle for the most part. The teams doing well ATS regress to the median and, conversely, those struggling end up finding their way closer to .500. One example would be the Cardinals against the Raiders this weekend — who would have thought we’d be talking about this match-up. Arizona is 5-3-1 ATS while Gruden’s bunch is 2-7 — neither team is very good so I wouldn’t expect the Cardinals to keep up that pace. I feel sick even thinking about taking the Raiders this weekend, but the trends are trends for a reason.

That said, I wouldn’t expect the dominant teams to completely fall off a cliff — like  the Chiefs, for example. They’re a league-best 8-1 against the spread. Don’t look for them to go 0-7 the rest of the way so they wind up 8-8 for the year. That’s extreme. But don’t be shocked if the Chiefs were to go 4-3 over their final 7 games — according to The Action Network, teams that win 6 or more games in the first half of the year win only at a  50.7% clip in the second half.

Let’s get to this week’s picks. My struggles last week brought my overall ATS record to 64-62-6. Picking games straight up, I’m at 91-40.

Can’t Miss

Kansas City at Rams (-3.5)

Call me crazy, but I’m not completely in love with the Rams. Listen, I think the world of Sean McVay. But defensively, this team has issues in the secondary and in run defense. Will these deficiencies stop them from winning the division? No. What about he NFC and the Super Bowl? Depends on the opponents. In most games, the Rams can get away with having sub-par defensive performances — I’ve said it all year: defenses simply need to make the right play at the right time. Defenses do not have to take over games like the Ravens in the 2000s or the ’85 Bears. This particular match-up against the Chiefs will require something out of Wade Phillips’s crew. Pat Mahomes will likely collect yards and touchdowns — and the Rams can live with that. But they must be able to stop Kareem Hunt. After allowing 273 yards of rushing against the Seahawks last week, I have my doubts. Chiefs, 38-35

Philadelphia (+9) at New Orleans

Maybe I’m wrong on this one, but it’s still the defending champs against the team who most looks the part this season. The Eagles offensive line has been inconsistent and their secondary has been terrible, thanks to multiple injuries. The Saints have the defensive front to get after Carson Wentz and Drew Brees knows how to attack secondaries. This is exactly the worst match-up for Philly — but nine is still a lot of points. Saints, 31-24

Very Worth Match-ups

Minnesota (+3) at Chicago

So Mitchell Trubisky has had a few games where he’s gone off this year, but if you dig a bit deeper, you’ll find that most of these games come when the team gets off to a great start — see the Tampa Bay and Detroit games. The question is can he do it against the Vikings defense? Which leads to the bigger question, is this Vikings defense as good as we all seem to think? The Bears offense is 12th in explosive passing plays (again, which tends to happen when the team gets up by multiple scores) and they’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 28th in that category — the linebackers have struggled immensely overall, Xavier Rhodes has been hurt, and Trae Waynes is giving up 9 yards per catch. Still, are the Bears able to take advantage? Minnesota makes up for the defensive woes by generating an effective pass rush — they lead the NFL in sacks. And if they can make Trubisky uncomfortable and mess with his timing, we won’t see many explosive plays. Vikings, 24-17

Dallas at Atlanta (-3)

This is an underrated game. Dallas isn’t super fun to watch, but the offense will have chances against the Falcons defense. This is simple, though: can Dallas win two straight on the road in tough environments? A little home cookin’ for the Falcons won’t hurt here. Falcons, 24-20

Green Bay (+3) at Seattle

Another Thursday night affair that isn’t awful. Green Bay’s newfound running attack with rookie Aaron Jones has the potential of changing the Packers season. Can they be successful though in Seattle? And can the Packers defense stop the the ground game that the Seahawks have been so good at this season? Is a match-up between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson really going to be decided by Aaron Jones and Rashad Penny? Seahawks, 23-21

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+6)

The Steelers are rolling and the Jags are a mess. But this game has a lot of exciting elements to it. Can Pittsburgh re-pay Jacksonville for last January’s divisional round game? Will Jacksonville play inspired because of the opponent? One thing about the Jaguars is that they often play to the level of the team they’re playing against. I’m not taking them to win, but it’ll be a good game. Steelers, 34-30

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-1.5)

Both these teams are, amazingly, in the hunt for the sixth seed in the AFC. The winner here will have a leg up and a realistic shot at snagging that final playoff spot. Is this the dreaded “let-down” game for Tennessee after they smacked the Patriots a week ago? Colts, 24-20

Don’t Be Fooled

Houston (-3) at Washington

The craziest stat through ten weeks of football might be that the Redskins have not been involved in any sort of lead change in any game. They get the lead and keep it or fall behind and never climb back — that’s their M.O. So, let’s ask one question: who scores first? It might take a minute for us to find out — both these defenses can get after it and it’s not like either offense it lighting the world on fire. I see a low scoring game, but the injuries on the Washington offensive line could be critical against a Texans front seven that’s athletic and fast. Texans, 20-16

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Baltimore

Not sure what’s going on at QB for Baltimore right now. Once it becomes clear who’s starting, I’ll make the pick. What I can say is that Cincy’s defense is about as bad as it gets — three straight games giving up 500 yards. Might be the perfect game to get Lamar Jackson’s feet wet at quarterback. Definitely leaning Ravens. Probably taking them no matter what the spread is. UPDATE: The line is Cincy getting 3.5 points. Not loving that. Neither team is far and away better than the other. Ravens, 24-21

Carolina (-4) at Detroit

Carolina’s offense will give Detroit’s defense all it can handle. The Lions let the Bears throw all over them a week ago — and the Panthers have more playmakers. Lions are a different team at home, but they will need their ‘A’ game to pull this one out. Panthers, 30-17

Denver (+7) at Chargers

The Chargers weren’t great in their week 10 over Oakland. In this one, they likely won’t need to be perfect either. Will the Broncos play inspired after their bye? Or will Vance Joseph’s seat grow hotter? Chargers, 27-21

Toilet Bowl Games

Tampa Bay at Giants (-2)

Good Fitzpatrick is due, right? Plus the Giants aren’t the type of team that strings together back-to-back wins. Bucs, 24-20

Oakland (+5.5) at Arizona

I like Josh Rosen better than any of the other rookie signal callers. I also like Arizona’s defensive pass rush against a Raider O-line that has been severely underperforming. My head says this one’s close. My gut says don’t pick the Raiders. Cardinals, 26-23


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Ep. 99, right here:

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

NFL Week 10 Picks

First things first — I can’t believe it’s week 10 already. It’s a little sad. And exciting. Last week’s games reminded us just what playoff football feels like: Saints-Rams, Patriots-Packers, and to an extent Ravens-Steelers and Seahawks-Chargers.

We’re inching closer to cold, see-your-breath, winter football.  And with that comes tighter match-ups and games that carry a lot of meaning come January.

Secondly, how’d I do with my picks last week you ask? Oh, let me tell you. How about 13-0 straight up and 10-3 against the spread!!! Your boy was on fire!!! For the season, I’m 81-33 straight up and 60-53-5 ATS. Let’s carry that good mojo over to this week!!!

Must See

Carolina (+4) at Pittsburgh

What a treat on Thursday night. Cam Newton is playing at an MVP-caliber and Norv Turner is calling games like he’s Sean McVay. I like the Panthers offense to find ways to get in the end zone a lot in this one.  Panthers, 24-20

Watchable

Seattle (+10) at Rams

Despite the loss at home to the Chargers last week, we need to seriously recognize that Seattle is a running team. Thirty-four carries for over 150 yards is evidence of a team that is committed to running the rock. In their last six games, Seattle has rushed for over 950 yards on 216  carries. Gone are the days of Russell Wilson slinging it 40 times. Seattle might not win this game, but if they can run, they’ll control the clock and limit the Rams’ offensive possessions — and that’s a huge key to beating L.A. Rams, 27-24

New Orleans (-4.5) at Cincinnati

Everyone wants to talk about Dez Bryant and his impact on this offense. Listen, if any coach can scheme him into the game plan, it’s Sean Payton; and if any QB can get him involved, it’s Drew Brees. I have major doubts that Dez can physically perform, though. But the good news for the Saints is that they don’t need him. Great teams have the luxury of taking flyers like this. Saints come in riding high after taking down the previously undefeated Rams, but the Bengals rush the passer and have the capability of getting to Brees. But no A.J. Green and that hurts. Plus, New Orleans has been getting great play out of their offensive line. Saints, 27-20

Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago

The Lions offense has looked anemic after their bye week — 14 points at home against Seattle and then 9 points in Minnesota. Offensive Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter might start wanting to collect his personal items from his office if this trend continues for another week. And it won’t be easy to turn things around at Chicago. Bears, 20-16

New England (-7) at Tennessee

Yes, Tennessee won on Monday night in Dallas, but they don’t look great. Offensive inconsistencies and awful play in the secondary by Malcolm Butler are two reasons this team is a game and a half back of the Texans in the division. The Patriots offense won’t hold back either. Patriots, 28-17

Worth a Look From Time to Time

Chargers  (-10) at Oakland

The Chargers are a statistical enigma. They have faced the fewest 3rd downs in the league yet they are in the bottom third of total first downs per game. They also have two of the top-8 players in the league for MVP in Phil Rivers and Melvin Gordon, however they rank in the bottom third in time of possession. On the other hand, the Raiders are a mess — statistically, stylistically, and however else you want to look at them. Chargers, 31-16

Dallas at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Philly might be hitting their stride — a bye week, a win in London, and  trading for Golden Tate might all help turn the Eagles’ season around. Doug Peterson and Carson Wentz should be able to pick apart this Cowboy defense — heck, Marcus Mariota hung 28 on them on MNF. Not to mention, Dallas never seems ultra-prepared and a short week won’t help. Eagles, 24-10

Washington at Tampa Bay (-3)

This match-up reminds me a lot of last week’s Redskins-Falcons game. Tampa Bay will air it out and Washington’s secondary isn’t equipped to stop them. And if they get behind, the Redskins offense isn’t built to win a shootout. Bucs, 30-24

Watch Reruns of Seinfeld

Giants at San Francisco (-3)

Two of the four worst teams in the NFL. That said, I like the Niners and their scrappiness. Keep it going, Nick Mullens!! 49ers, 27-23

Buffalo (+7.5) at Jets

Question: more offensive touchdowns or defensive touchdowns in this game? Sam Darnold, once touted the savior of the Jets franchise, now looks like a rookie who had ball control issues coming out of college. And Buffalo is, once again, rolling out Nathan Peterman in what has become the worst joke of all-time. Just stop!!! I don’t know how the Jets are giving 7 to anyone, including the hapless Bills. Jets, 19-13

Miami (+10) at Green Bay

Is this 10-point because the Packers almost beat the Rams? I’m not seeing a very good Green Bay team right now. I know Miami is the worst 5-4 team in NFL history (prove me wrong — I dare you), but the Packers are riddled with injuries and they look like an offense that has to work so hard just to gain positive yardage. Packers, 24-20.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3)

I know the Giants go to SF this week, but this game might be even less watchable to me. Andrew Luck is going to get MVP consideration, especially if the Colts get to 7 or 8 wins. Marlon Mack has been a pleasant surprise the last few games, rushing for more than 100 yards in all three. Then there’s the Jaguars who are inconsistent on defense, terrible on offense, and vastly underachieving across the board. These games are usually dogfights — but maybe the Jags punt on the season if this one starts to get away. Colts, 26-20

Atlanta (-4) at Cleveland

Yes, Cleveland’s defense is one of the best in the league by simple stats. But Matt Ryan is back playing at an MVP level and he’s got the Falcons right back in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Plus, Cleveland’s offense has sputtered, Baker Mayfield is statistically one of the worst QBs through 9 weeks, and Denzel Ward is banged up. side the Atlanta offense in this one. Falcons, 31-23

Arizona at Kansas City (-16.5)

Josh Rosen is gutsy, he’s got a good arm, he’s smart, and he’s the reason I think the Cardinals will fall into a few wins along the way. This game isn’t one of them, though. Chiefs, 38- 17


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Episode 96 (“NFL’s Legit Contenders Plus Lev Bell Saga & the Detroit Lions Making Moves”):

 

Listen to Episode 97 (“NFC East Getting Clearer, Packers Need to Get Right, Falcons Surging, and Seattle’s Plan in L.A.”):

 

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

Week 9 NFL Picks

The first month of the season is really difficult as far as picking games in the NFL goes. No one is quite what you thought they’d be and there’s a feeling out period for everyone. Once we get into October and closer to Halloween, teams have settled into what they are, and we, as fans and bettors, feel much better about projecting winners and losers week-to-week. But then, our love-hate relationship with match-ups and point spreads gets ugly again for a week or two thanks to the trade deadline. Teams are much more willing to make deals in the last few years then in the past. And yes, it’s fun and it’s an exciting element we are rewarded with for following the sports; however, it puts everything we thought we knew and understood in limbo. We kind of have to start over — who
is this team, REALLY and how much better are they now with Player X? And will Player X make an impact this week…or next week….when???

Although my record against the spread last week (6-8) would indicate I haven’t really figured much out so what’s the swapping of some players to different teams really going to do to my (in)ability to pick games? For the season, I’m 50-50-5 (ATS), and after another 11-3 week straight up, I’m at 71-33. Let’s see how week 9 goes.

The Most Watchable Games You’ll Get All Year

Rams at New Orleans (-1.5)

This has NFC Championship Game written all over it. Both offenses are outstanding and coached by two of the most innovative minds on that side of the ball that the NFL can offer. Which defense can do a little bit more, though? Saints have playmakers and I expect them to show up. The Rams are 8-0, but they have to prove themselves in big, close games that they have to battle. Saints, 30-27

Green Bay (+6.5) at New England

Throw all the stats and numbers and match-ups out the window. This is Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers, plain and simple. Period. Brady makes one more play than A-Rod at Foxboro. Patriots, 34-31

I Mean, They’re Not Awesome, But We Can Watch

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore

History says this one will be a slugfest, but these two offenses are the ground and pound of years past. The Steelers are the more balanced attack thanks to the emergence of James Connor. Steelers, 30-24

Detroit (+5) at Minnesota

So Lions fans are upset because Bob Quinn flipped Golden Tate and his expiring deal for a third round draft pick. News to Lions fans — you weren’t re-signing Tate and you’re not contending this year. Take the draft pick and run. As for this game, I like the match-up for the Lions: (1) Minnesota’s defense can be thrown on; (2) the Vikings throw the ball more than they run it (and that’s good because the Lions can’t stop the run); and (3) the Vikings offensive line has holes. The question is can the Lions take advantage of these areas. Maybe not, but it should be close. Vikings, 27-23

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7)

Fitzmagic is back, but Cam’s got a little magic as well. Newton has put himself in the MVP conversation — and deservedly so. His 66% completion rate and 10 sacks through 7 games are career-bests. Cam and his numbers look better than his 2015 MVP season, when the Panthers ruled the NFC with a 15-1 record. Until he regresses, I’m not picking against him. Panthers, 31-20

Chargers (+1.5) at Seattle

I know Seattle has won 4 of 5 and have a renewed commitment to running the ball. But the Chargers are pretty good so this line makes me side-eye it. I like and appreciate how Seattle has transformed their offense on the fly after the 0-2 start to the year. But give me the better team. Let’s keep it simple. Chargers, 27-10

Please Don’t Ask Me to Watch 

Chicago at Buffalo (+10)

Ahhh, the long awaited return of Nathan Peterman. Here we go!! It’s not like the Bears have some unstoppable offense, but it’s Nate Peterman. You’ve got to assume 3 picks and one will be a pick-6, right? The Bears offense might only need one touchdown in order to cover the ten. Bears, 20-6

Kansas City (-8) at Cleveland

The upheaval in Cleveland will not help matters this week, although for the long term, clearly our boy, Hue, had to go. Gregg Williams’s head coaching abilities will be on full display Sunday. Get your popcorn ready!! Chiefs, 31-20

Atlanta (+2) at Washington

Talk about two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. Atlanta’s air attack can score at will, but injuries have ravaged their defense; while Washington prides themselves on the old school theory — run the ball and stop the run. Matt Ryan should be able to find the holes in the Skins secondary, which is the weak link on that defense. Falcons, 28-24

Tennessee (+6.5) at Dallas

Wow, the Cowboys are getting some respect from Vegas!! I’m not sure Dallas can afford to give any team 6.5 points. But what has this Titans done lately? Nada. This line might be about right, but I don’t think either offense can separate from the other. And if I need a tiebreaker, give me Mike Vrabel over Jason Garrett. Titans, 20-17

Houston (+2.5) at Denver

I do not understand what Vegas thinks of the Texans. The past two weeks they were huge favorites over Buffalo and Miami (they covered one of the two), and now after reeling off five straight wins, they’re 2.5-point dogs in Denver? This line stinks and I’d be nervous about betting it. But I can’t take Denver — they’re done and they know it. Texans, 24-17

I Openly Refuse to Watch

Oakland (+3) at San Francisco

The Toilet Bowl Game of the Year!!! The Battle of the Bay!!! I don’t have anything to say. 49ers, 15-11 sounds about right

Jets (+3) at Miami

The promising 3-0 start by the Dolphins is long gone and so is Ryan Tannehill, it appears. This whole thing seems really strange and not good for the QB’s future — which was already shaky — in Miami. Dolphins should be eyeing quarterback prospects in the draft. That said, the Jets are exactly scaring anyone either. The home team should play well enough in a game that probably doesn’t feature too many points. Dolphins, 20-19


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Episode 93 (“Playoff Feel to Some Week 9 NFL  Games”):

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail