NFL Week 13 Picks

Let’s not waste any time looking backwards on last week (or the last few weeks for that matter). We’ve got a whole host of interesting lines this week. Four games currently on the slate feature a double-digit favorite — one of them being the Rams who are on the road in Detroit. A fifth game is at more than a touchdown — the Saints giving the Cowboys 7.5 in Dallas. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a mere one game where the teams separated in Vegas by less than a field goal — Baltimore giving 1.5 to the home team, Atlanta.

From the look of things, it doesn’t appear to be some greatly competitive week as far as the match-ups go. So maybe I’ll have an easier time picking games this week after the mess I made all over myself a week ago: 9-6 straight up and 5-10 against the spread. For the year, we’re a healthy 106-53 straight up, but have now fallen into the red with a nasty record of 75-77-8 ATS. Let’s see if we can get some much needed help this week.

Super Watchable

Minnesota (+6) at New England

The Vikings have all the pieces in place to beat the Pats — speed on offense and a defense that can get to the passer. But don’t forget who their quarterback is. Also, the Patriots are 29-3 at home in their last 32 December games. Plus, they will have Gronk, Sony Michel, and Julian Edelman out there. This isn’t a “let-down” game for New England. They’ll be fired up. Patriots, 27-24

Chargers (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

I think I’d be all-in on the Chargers if Melvin Gordon was playing. I read this week that the Steelers haven’t lost consecutive games since 2016 — but I just don’t think they’re as good as L.A. But geez, it scares me when Anthony Lynn is roaming the sidelines. Speaking of the HC, what in the world was Melvin Gordon doing playing against the Cardinals, up 28-10 in the 3rd quarter? Screw it, the Chargers defense and pass rush is plenty reason alone to take them here — despite Lynn. Chargers, 31-27

New Orleans at Dallas (+7.5)

It’s impossible to not love the Saints and their offense. They’ve got one of the most accurate passers of all time, a dynamic running back duo that also may be the greatest ever, and a WR in Michael Thomas, who’s quickly becoming top 5 at his position. Hard to imagine any defense slowing this machine up. Enter the Cowboys. They play the perfect style to combat the New Orleans offensive attack: run the ball, limit the Saints time of possession, and rush the passer. They’re capable of all three of those things. The question is can they execute. Saints, 27-20

Cleveland (+5.5) at Houston

Who would have guessed this would be a headline match-up? But the Browns are exciting and have playmakers on both sides of the ball; while the Texans have only gone ahead and won 8 straight after an 0-3 start. Can the Browns win another road game? My gut says no, but this seems like a nice spot for them to steal one against the Texans, who got off to a shaky start on Monday night against the Titans. Browns, 34-31

Throw on the Game

Baltimore (+1.5) at Atlanta

The Falcons defense has been a stepping stone for offensives all season. Lamar Jackson comes in with a chance to put up some nice numbers against a pass defense that is ranked in the bottom quarter in the league. In addition, the Ravens have run the ball for over 250 yards in Jackson’s two starts — not a good sign for Atlanta, as their run D is tied for 3rd worst in yards per rush. Ravens, 23-20

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Carolina needs to fix their pass defense. They’ve been getting torched and the Bucs are more than capable of moving the ball through the air. If Carolina is going to make a push for the postseason, they’ve got to turn things around now. Panthers, 31-27

What Else is On?

Chicago (-4) at Giants

The Giants offensive line is, well, offensive (that’s too easy). And the Bears have a guy named Khalil Mack. He should feast on Sunday. Bears, 24-16

Denver at Cincinnati (+5)

Two words: Jeff. Driskell. Road games are tough and Denver enters this one with some expectations for the first time all season. If they want to be a playoff team, they show it in here. Broncos, 24-20

Washington at Philadelphia (-6)

Philly’s pass rush should get after Colt McCoy with the dinged up offensive line he has in front of him. Eagles, 23-16

Rams (-10) at Detroit

Two simple questions: how do the Lions score and how do the Lions stop the Rams from scoring? The Rams can score at will and that won’t change at Ford Field. Rams, 38-13

Kansas City at Oakland (+15)

Will the Raiders be able to keep it “close-ish”? I’m probably going to feel like an idiot when the Chiefs are up 35-10 halfway through the 3rd quarter. Chiefs, 31-17

Throw the TV Out the Window

Arizona (+14) at Green Bay

The Packers aren’t ever completely dead as long as Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. By no means are they in the driver’s seat, but if they can win out (and the schedule isn’t difficult), they’ll at least give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Are they motivated to put a whoopin’ on the Cardinals? Packers 34-19

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville

My one worry is how the Colts play in a game on the road that they should dominate. It’s clear as day that the Jags are done this season, and I don’t expect the players to show any ounce of fight over the final 5 weeks, except for Cody Kessler and whoever else ends up playing QB for them. But that’s why this is tricky — the Colts are not an established team yet and I’m not sure they are ready to cut a team’s throat. Colts, 24-17

Buffalo (+5) at Miami

Do I seriously need to break this game down? Buffalo always plays tough. I don’t know if the Dolphins care or not. Bills, 20-12

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

These NFC West divisional games always seem to be closer than they should be. That being said, I don’t think the 49ers have the personnel up front to stop what Seattle wants to do and what they do best, which is run, run, run. And then, oh yeah, there’s Russell Wilson who should be able to take advantage of the Niners pass defense. Seahawks, 27-10

Jets (+10.5) at Tennessee

Geez, Vegas hates the Jets. How can the Titans give anyone 10.5 points? I don’t know who’s showing up for Tennessee. As for the Jets, I don’t hate them — they’re not great, but they don’t embarrass themselves usually. Titans, 24-20


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Author: Brian Goodwin

An educator for 15 years. I have a passion for sports and a passion for writing about sports. I'm very excited to run this blog and have conversations with people about relevant topics, mostly pertaining to sports but also in all aspects of life.

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