We’re All in Quarantine So Here’s an NFL Mock Draft

Here it is: my first NFL Mock draft of the year. Maybe you like it, maybe you don’t. But, hey, we’re all stuck inside so you can at least humor me and give it a read.

1.  Bengals

It’s simple — the Bengals need a franchise quarterback. And no QB had quite the season that Joe Burrow experienced at LSU.

The PICK: Joe Burrow, LSU, QB


2. Redskins

If Washington wanted to move on from Dwayne Haskins, I wouldn’t totally blame them. However, the old coaching staff is gone — and they may have been partly to blame why Haskins’ rookie campaign wasn’t great. Add to the D-Line, though. This should be simple, too.

The PICK: Chase Young, Ohio St., edge


3. Lions

This could be where the draft gets interesting. If a QB-hungry team wants Tua, the Lions could make out like bandits. But for Detroit, pair newly-acquired Desmond Trufant with another skilled CB.

The PICK: Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio St., CB


4. Giants

General manager Dave Gettleman loves the big guys in the trenches. You also have Daniel Jones — and you better protect him.

The PICK: Tristan Wirfs, IOWA, OT


5. Dolphins

The Fins (with their three first round selections) are certainly prime candidates to trade up to get a QB.

The PICK: Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, QB


6. Chargers

L.A. made a handful of moves in free agency and started shoring up the offensive line. Now they just need a quarterback to replace Phil Rivers.

The PICK: justin Herbert, Oregon, QB


7. Panthers

Owner David Tepper is exercising patience and is trusting new head coach Matt Rhule to rebuild this team carefully. Rhule loves athletes — maybe one to replace retired Luke Kuechly is the way he’ll go.

The PICK: Isaiah Simmons, Clemson, LB


8. Cardinals

After Bill O’Brien and the Texans gave away DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals must be feeling pretty good. They add a true number 1 wideout before the draft and can now focus in on protecting last year’s number one overall pick, Kyler Murray.

The PICK: mekhi Becton, Louisville, OT


9. Jaguars

The Jags need help everywhere. What was once a very tenacious and nasty defense just a couple years ago, there is now some major replenishing to do.

The PICK: Derrick Brown, Auburn, DT


10. Browns

Cleveland sure has been busy in free agency. Will it translate on the field in 2020? Who knows. But now the Browns biggest hole is at linebacker, and they can get a real good one at 10.

The PICK: Patrick Queen, LSU, LB


11. Jets

Two ways to go here, as I see it. One — get Sam Darnold a stud of a WR who defenses will have to account for every week. Or, two, protect your young investment.

The PICK: Jedrick Wills, Alabama, OT


12. Raiders

Jon Gruden and Mike Manock teamed up in last year’s draft to select almost the entire Clemson and Alabama rosters. Let’s keep the trend goin in a major position of need.

The PICK: jerry Jeudy, Alabama, WR


13. 49ers

The 49ers need a WR to replace Emmanuel Sanders. A versatile offensive lineman is certainly in play here too, but I’m not sure one will be available. Ans CB might be too early. This is a tough spot. But tell me Henry Ruggs in Kyle Shanahan’s offense wouldn’t be fun to watch — and borderline unfair.

The PICK: Henry Ruggs, Alabama, WR


14. Bucanneers

Having Tom Brady on your team requires supporting in and keeping him upright. Can’t have that $50 million in guaranteed money go down because you can’t block for him.

The PICK: Andrew Thomas, Georgia, OT


15. Broncos

Adding some more studs on that defensive line would please head coach Vic Fangio.

The PICK: Javon Kinlaw, Florida, DT


16. Falcons

The pass defense needs help in Atlanta. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go pass rusher or corner here.

The PICK: C.J. Henderson, Florida, CB


17. Cowboys

The Coboys could use an impact player coming off the edge.

The PICK: K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU, EDGE


18. Dolphins

Lots of holes to fill in Miami. And while they did a nice job early in free agency securing some nice players, depth is critical. Pass rusher from Iowa looks to have Brian Flores written all over him.

The PICK: A.J. Epenesa, Iowa, Edge


19. Raiders

Stick with what works. Go get another Nick Saban kid.

The PICK: Trevon Diggs, Alabama, CB


20. Jaguars

Jacksonville could keep rebuilding the defense and no one could fault them. But piecing a good line back in front of Gardner Minshew should also be a priority.

The PICK: Joshua Jones, Houston, OT


21. Eagles

Now that they got Darius Slay from the Lions, the Eagles can fully turn their attention to getting Carson Wentz some true talent to throw to.

The PICK: ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma, WR


22. Vikings

Excellent haul the Vikings got for Stefon Diggs in the trade to Buffalo. Now, Minnesota can start adding much needed pieces back to that defense. (Replacing Diggs can wait.)

The PICK: Xavier McKinney, Alabama, s


23. Patriots

Yes, Tom Brady is gone, but there’s no need to go jumping blindly at the first QB that you see here. Instead, understand the Patriots lost both Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy from that linebacking corps. Bill Belichick loves having trustworthy, smart, and versatile linebackers

The PICK: Zack Baun, Wisconsin, LB


24. Saints

The Saints will want to re-invest in the defensive backfield this offseason. Getting younger and cheaper in the draft should be the way to go.

The PICK: Kristian Fulton, lsu, CB


25. Vikings

The defense needs help, but the Vikings also need to protect Kirk Cousins. They just re-upped his deal so keeping him healthy is critical to their championship window remaining open.

The PICK: Ezra Cleveland, Boise St., G/T


26. Dolphins

Miami grabbed its QB of the future at 5. Now protect him.

The PICK: Austin Jackson, USC, OT


27. Seahawks

The Seahawks seem to be letting Jadaveon Clowney walk so adding a pass rusher makes sense.

The PICK: Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn St., EDGE


28. Ravens

Smart teams make smart moves — and they also seem to have things fall right in their laps.

The PICK: Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma, LB


29. Titans

Tennessee had a great deal of free agents and had to let some walk. The defensive backfield has been a strong suit of the Titans lately — now it’s definitely an area of need.

The PICK: Damon Arnette, Ohio St., CB


30. Packers

Listen, I know – death, taxes, and the Green Bay Packers never take a wide receiver in the first round. I get it. But they also never used to be active in free agency. It’s a new day in Lambeau!

The PICK: Jalen Reagor, TCU, WR


31. 49ers

SF could use some depth at the backend of that defense.

The PICK: Grant Delpit, LSU, S


32. Chiefs

Picking here, certainly opens a team up for trading back. If they stay, Chiefs easily add depth to an already stacked team. Add big bodies to protect Patrick Mahomes is never ever a bad thing.

The PICK: Lloyd Cushonberry, LSU, C/G


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 152 (“NFL Free Agency Frenzy and KylerMurray/Draft Buzz”) right here:

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The Juiciest 2020 Free Agent Quarterback Landing Spots

This offseason free agent market involves some of the bigger names at the quarterback position than we’ve seen in quite some time. So there’s quality, but there’s also quantity. Eight QBs who started NFL games last year are on this Spring’s market, and upwards of half a dozen 2019 starters are expected to either be traded or candidates for roster cuts. This sort of offseason movement is really unprecedented in the NFL, unlike basketball or baseball where player movement is a regular — and expected — occurrence during the off months. Now, it’s true, NFL players have used the power they have in the CBA to switch teams when they’re disgruntled or sit out portions of the regular season, usually when they are unhappy with their contract situation and feel the team hasn’t treated them appropriately.  But, typically, the quarterback position is not one where a terrible amount of this happens. Other than the rare Eli Manning refusing to go to the Chargers on Draft Day or John Elway making sure he never played a down for the Colts, quarterbacks don’t often get to free agency — well, good ones don’t. And great ones can only dream.

But this offseason brings about a different feeling with the position. A dozen or so QBs will either be hitting the market as free agents or they will be on the chopping block of sorts with their current teams — all for various different reasons. And what makes this fun is that many are going to move. That’s the thing — good QBs often never see free agency because their teams are smart enough to lock them up before it ever happens. Not this year, though — but this year is complicated. Tom Brady isn’t hitting the free agency market for the first time in his 20 year career because the Patriots don’t think he’s good. There are other factors — obviously. Phllip Rivers — same thing. The Chargers didn’t;t all of a sudden think Rivers was terrible and unable to lead that team, whose roster is chalk full of talent. It was just time to go in a another direction. Go on down the list of QB free agents and you’ll see nothing is cut and dry — with each one, there are a specific set of unusual circumstances that have led the player and the team to the spot we’re in today.

Let’s lay some ground rules — and it’s simple: players cannot return to their current teams. So if this is supposed to be fun, let’s make it fun. Let’s look at the tastiest, the juiciest landing spots for all the top quarterback free agents, as well as some of the QBs who’s names are being bandied about in trade talks and roster cut-downs.

Tom Brady

You talk to 5 people and they’ll give you 5 different teams where Brady ends up playing next year. But if we’re talking juicy, what’s juicier than TB12 taking the helm of the Indianapolis Colts in the House That Peyton Built? It’s a really nice team with a great offensive line, solid head coach, and a ton of cash to spend on getting Bray the weapons he so dearly covets. So this one is juicy, but also realistic. Factor in the decade-plus of Pats-Colts rivalry, Deflategate, and Josh McDaniels spurning Jim Irsay to remain in Foxboro and this couldn’t be a tastier treat.

Drew Brees

I know Brees has announced he’s not only returning for the 2020 season, but he wants to do so in New Orleans. But in the spirit of our game, imagine the Saints say, “Thanks, but we’ll go elsewhere.” How about Brees going to the team that he was a good medical evaluation away from signing with when he left San Diego oh so long ago? The Miami Dolphins. Talk about tying up some loose ends. But this could be about 15 years too late for Fins fans.

Philip Rivers

Still hard to believe Rivers won’t end he career with the Chargers. But I’m all in on a Rivers-Arians tag team in Tampa Bay. I know, I know — this may not fit as far as the offense Bruce Arians likes to run; but tell me Rivers chucking it around to those wise receivers wouldn’t be fun to see? And can Bruce and Phil just plan on tandem press conferences each week?

Dak Prescott

No one believes Dak goes anywhere, but technically he’s a free agent so he’s included here. It’s not spicy, but you know what — I’d like to see Dak head to Carolina with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady and the weapons that the Panthers have at WR. He’d also have Christian McCaffrey so that’s a not a bad duo in the backfield.

Ryan Tannehill

What a breakout season for a guy most of us had given up on. This one was tough — juicy and Ryan Tannehill don’t really go together, you know? But if any team was to fall in love with a QB who proved himself for less than a full season of work and pay him $25 to $30 million, tell me it wouldn’t be Jacksonville. It’d be Nick Foles all over again.

Jameis Winston

The most fun spot for Jameis to end up might be back in Tampa — let’s follow up that 30/30 season with an encore. But we’ve seen that show so let’s spread the Winston wealth around. Jon Gruden gushed over Jameis in his Gruden QB Camp (or whatever they called his little show on ESPN). Now, it’s time for the head coach to put his money where his mouth was. A Jameis-Gruden partnership has all the making of a complete disaster — on the field and off. And remember, the backdrop here is Vegas. Vegas!! This script writes itself.

Marcus Mariota

This is easy. Head west and get with a coach who sees the value in Mariota’s ability to be mobile. The Chargers need a new QB and head coach Anthony Lynn likes mobile quarterbacks — Tyrod Taylor’s already in L.A. on the roster and when Lynn was in Buffalo he enjoyed a QB who could move around and run the ball.

Teddy Bridgewater

I’m going to ignore the report earlier in the week that Teddy is going to command $30 million a season in his next deal. Come on. I’m as big a fan of Bridgewater’s, and what he did to keep the Saints afloat while Brees was hurt was nothing short of astonishing. But $30 mil? Anyway, I’m opening my arms (not my checkbook) to Teddy as he heads to Foxboro. Get him on the cheap, pair him with McDaniels, and Bill Belichick gets to have some fun with a guy that his friend Sean Payton got a ton out of.

The rest of the players listed below are not free agents, but their names have come up as players who could be on the move this offseason.

Andy Dalton

Assuming Joe Burrow in the pick at one and that he does in fact decide to not force a trade to land elsewhere, Dalton could certainly be on the move. And I think if Bill Belichick could win with Andy Dalton as his QB, a lot of people might start wondering if it was more Belichick-Brady than Brady-Belichick.

Cam Newton

Is there a particular city you just feel like Cam would be at home in? Any guesses? Dude’s a lover of fashion, lives the Hollywood lifestyle, enjoys the attention and the spotlight. If this isn’t L.A. with the Chargers, I should stop playing this game right now. Match made in heaven.

Derek Carr

The Gruden-Carr relationship is tenuous at best. I’d love to see Carr head to New Orleans and let Sean Payton work his magic with him. It’d be funny — goes to New Orleans and rejuvenates his career, but the great quarterback whisperer Gruden had to jettison him.

Matthew Stafford

Again, here’s another one where one report emerges that insinuates the Lions want to move on from Stafford, and it makes no sense financially — yet if they choose to take Tua at 3 in April’s draft, then maybe a trade should be considered. So, I thought Denver because John Elway loves big-armed quarterbacks and no one has any clue as to how Elway really feels about his current QB situation in Denver. But, then, I realized if Stafford’s ever leaving Detroit, he’s leaving the D for Big D. Home sweet home for Stafford in Jerry’s World.


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

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I Do Declare!!! (5 Bold Declarations Through 3 Weeks in the NFL)

Yes, the NFL season is a measly three weeks old. And yes, there is still plenty of football to be played. But why should that stop anyone from grabbing ahold of a position, not letting go, and shouting it from the rooftops — or in this case a blog?

So far, there are various storylines that are juicy and warrant some consideration for headlining this topic — “Dak will win MVP” or “Phillip Rivers is done” or my favorite “The Bears can win the Super Bowl despite Mitchell Trubisky”. All are fun and I’d listen to each with varying degrees of rationality. But I went with five other items that actually do feel pretty strongly about — almost to the point where I don’t, necessarily, view each of them as being outlandish.

1. New head coach Zach Taylor is the answer in Cincinnati.

What a difference from the Marvin Lewis regime to what the offense looks like now. Andy Dalton has been given the freedom to sling it around in Taylor’s offense — the Bengals throw at the third highest clip through three weeks. As a result, Dalton ranks second in yards passing, averaging 326 per game, behind only Patrick Mahomes. What maybe most impressive is that Dalton’s success is happening without any semblance of a living, breathing offensive line. He’s been sacked 11 times — a pace that would put him at nearly 60 for the season if this keeps up. That’s like David Carr, Deshaun Watson air. In addition, Cincy has not gotten the early season production from Joe Mixon out of the backfield, and A.J. Green hasn’t been on the field yet for a single snap due to a foot injury that may sideline him for up to another 4 weeks. And if you still aren’t sold that Taylor is the answer for this franchise, look no further than the resurrection of John Ross’s career in this offense. The “thought-to-be-bust” first round pick from a few years back has turned into the team’s most dependable and playmaking WR with 13 catches on 26 targets, 292 yards, and 3 touchdowns against defenses like Seattle and Buffalo in two of their first three games.

2. Indianapolis will unequivocally win the AFC South.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you about this. I can proudly say I was not one of those people who violently jumped off the Colts’ bandwagon when we were all blindsided by the news of Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement. I still thought they’d be a playoff team then, and now, I think they’re good enough to win that division. Why? Four simple reasons: One, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t stink. Through three weeks as the new starter, he’s top seven in completion percentage and passer rating and his touchdown to interception ratio is a solid 7 to 1. And doesn’t hurt he’s getting help from Marlon Mack out of the backfield. Second reason is that Frank Reich is a really smart head coach. In a league where coaching blunders happen by the minute on any given Sunday (ask Freddie Kitchens or Bruce Arians after week 3), Reich has moved close to the top of HCs that I’d want on my sideline. The third reason is this roster has been built the right way by GM Chris Ballard. After former general manager Ryan Grigson tried everything in his power to burn this franchise to the ground despite having a franchise QB, Ballard has put his stamp on this team by adding very good role players to the defense and re-building what was an atrocious offensive line. And lastly, look no further than the other teams in the AFC South: Tennessee’s QB options are Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill — enough said; as long as Bill O’Brien is running the Texans, I’m not a believer; and while I love Gardner Minshew and all that comes with him, I’m not sold on the Jaguars.

3. Kyle Allen can save Carolina and keep them alive in the playoff picture.

Ok, so truth be told — I picked Carolina to make the playoffs, and I even thought they had a somewhat realistic shot at making a Super Bowl run. So forgive me if I feel like I’ve been handed a new lease on life after what Kyle Allen was able to do in week 3 in his debut start of the season with Cam Newton sidelined because of a foot injury. (Message to Cam — take your time coming back, get healthy, shop for some new outfits.) The Texas A&M product was an efficient 19-26 throwing the ball with 261 yards and spread the looks around to seven different pass catchers. He tossed four TDs and gave hope to fans that in a year where Atlanta seems out of sync, Tampa Bay  can’t hold a lead at home against a rookie quarterback, and Drew Brees is hurt, the Carolina Panthers still have a shot at winning the division.

4. I know this is blasphemy, but…..Saquon will NOT be missed by the Giants.

Listen, I’m not going to make any apologies for this. I understand Saquon Barkley is seen by many as the second coming of Barry Sanders. But I can’t help that I view the running back as a very expendable position in the league. What example would you prefer I provide? How the Ravens rolled out Alex Collins a year ago to only switch over to Kenneth Dixon then to Buck Allen and then finally to Gus Edwards? All were productive while they had their respective shots. How about the 2018 Chiefs cutting Kareem Hunt and just plopping Damien Williams into the lineup, where he looked like he was an all-pro? And to continue with that example, Williams gets nicked up this year and Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy are carrying the load. Or maybe you like 2018 second tier MVP candidate Todd Gurley basically sitting out the final few weeks in December and then disappearing in the playoffs only to have C.J. Anderson roll off the couch and rush for multiple 100-yard games in December and January. Pick one — and there are plenty more. However, I will say that the better the team, the less you miss a running back. And the G-men are not a good team so Saquon’s production, yes, will be sorely missed — the dude accounted for 2,028 yard from scrimmage in his rookie campaign a year ago, scored 15 times, and got 91 passes on 121 targets. I’m not blind — Saquon is awesome and that’s why he’s already been elevated to first name status. So to frame this more succinctly, the Giants are not making up Saquon’s production while he’s out because no running back on their roster can do what he does with that offensive line and the roster surrounding him. But long-term, as the Giants get better and turn into a respectable team again (assuming this happens), their roster will  that of a team that does not require someone of Saquon’s ability at that position. My point is the Giants aren’t dead because they are without their appointed savior — they ALREADY WERE dead!

5. The Seahawks are not good.

Let me walk through the first three games of the season for the Seahawks: hosted Cincinnati in the season opener and let Andy Dalton throw for a career-high 426 yards, defense got torched, and yet they escape 21-20; traveled to Heinz Field and sneaked out a 28-26 win over a Steelers team that looks bad and played the second half without Big Ben; and finally they hosted a Drew Brees-less Saints team outdoors and looked lifeless before making the score closer in the end than the actual game was. I’m concerned about this defense — Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater, basically, had their way against that unit. And now the run game, which was expected to be their calling card, is in question because Chris Carson can’t hold onto the football and Rashaad Penny has some mysterious hamstring injury.


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 216 (“Revisiting Our NFL Predictions”) right here:

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NFL Mock Draft 3.0

We’re closing in on the NFL Draft and it’s officially misinformation season. Though, it’s funny — the lead-up to the draft is cyclical. It starts with the initial “this guy’s a can’t miss top 5 pick” and over the course of the combine and player pro days, it turns sour and that top-5 kid becomes a “mid- to lower first rounder.” Then a week or two out from actual draft night, we return to “this kid’s climbing the board” and he ends up right back where he started. (This year’s example — Ed Oliver.) So with that said, let’s have a look at the third installment of my mock draft.

1.  Cardinals

If you’ve read my previous mocks, you know I’ve been adamant that I feel like the Cardinals are putting on a show with this Kyler Murray stuff. However, it appears all signs point to Arizona taking Murray at 1. So I guess I’m on-board. Kind of.

The PICK: Kyler Murray, Oklahoma, QB


2. 49ers

I like Josh Allen more here, but what I like makes no difference to John Lynch. I’d be completely stunned if the pick isn’t Nick Bosa.

The PICK: nick bosa, ohio st., edge


3. Jets

Everyone will be expecting the Jets to trade out here or take the beast in the middle of Alabama’s defensive line, Quinnen Williams, in this spot. Do they have the guts (or the smarts) to take the best player in the draft in my opinion? That’s not a simple question to answer, but reports (believe them or not) are that maybe Williams is slipping a bit.

The PICK: Josh Allen, kentucky, edge/OLB


4. Raiders

I don’t think Mike Mayock wants a quarterback here, and I don’t think Jon Gruden, necessarily, wants to work with a rookie signal caller from this class. The best player on their board should be the pick, and based on other mocks, that guy is Quinnen Williams.

The PICK: Quinnen Williams, Alabama, DT


5. Buccanneers

Tampa Bay needs a lot of help of the defensive side. Todd Bowles’s system calls for a strong presence up the middle at linebacker and safety. Five is too high for safety, but it’s not too high for the draft’s best and rangiest inside linebacker.

The PICK: Devin White, LSU, ILB


6. Giants

“I’m convinced this won’t be a quarterback.” That was my quote a couple weeks ago. I think I still mostly believe that, but I’m not betting my house on it. My next question is about Montez Sweat’s heart. If a team’s medical staff is good with him, he’s definitely a top 10 pick without question. But if there’s concern, he could fall.

The PICK: Montez Sweat, Miss. St., EDGE


7. Jaguars

Nick Foles needs help — from the offensive line to the pass catchers. The Jags can’t go wrong adding to the line here with one of those top offensive linemen. But a big, athletic tight end, who can serve as a blocker on the line as well as a reliable pass catcher for Foles, might be too enticing to pass up.

The PICK: T.J. Hockenson, Iowa, TE


8. Lions

I mocked Devin Bush to the Lions at 8 on a podcast kind of on a whim. But the more I think about it and the more I read, it makes pretty good sense. I think Matt Patricia would prefer a middle linebacker or a cornerback over an edge rusher, if he follows the Belichick model. Trading down is a possibility if Bob Quinn can find any takers. In the event they can’t, I like a University of Michigan guy here.

The PICK: Devin Bush, Michigan, ILB


9. Bills

Buffalo needs offensive line help in a bad way. The question comes down to how much do they like Ed Oliver (if he falls here), and then do they believe they can find solid offensive line help in the later rounds. I get it — Oliver is a luxury pick here for the Bills. But he might be too good to pass up.

The PICK: Ed Oliver, Houston, DT


10. Broncos

I’m fully buying into the speculation that John Elway likes Drew Lock a whole lot. If it’s true, expect Elway to take another stab at finally fixing the quarterback conundrum he’s created in Denver.

The PICK: drew Lock, QB, Missouri


11. Bengals

Two theories of thought here: (1) new head coach usually means let him have the QB he wants; (2) the Bengals have holes all across that defense. So what do you commit to here? Does Zac Taylor fancy Dwayne Haskins in his system or will Andy Dalton suffice for one more season while the team builds up it’s many weakened spots on the other side of the ball? What the Bengals really need to do is dangle this pick out there in hopes that a QB-hungry team like Washington or New York trades up with them.

The PICK: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida


12. Packers

After free agency, this Packers team looks pretty solid. I’m not sure any team in the league did more with free agency than what Green Bay did. They now have afforded themselves the luxury of taking the best player available and adding depth, perhaps, at some already strong positions.

The PICK: Jonah Williams, Alabama, T/G


13. Dolphins

New head coach Brians Flores can begin putting his imprints on this roster right away. There are many holes here. If Flores follows the model he was a part of in New England, look for him to target either offensive of defensive line. Personally, I think Flores wants a leader, much like him, on the field.

The PICK: Christian Wilkins, Clemson, DT


14. Falcons

I’m very confident this pick is CB or defensive line. An athletic playmaker at either position would be welcomed by this team.

The PICK: Brian Burns, Florida St., Edge


15. Redskins

The quarterback position is obviously a mess in D.C. If Josh Rosen gets traded, this would be one spot that makes sense. If that happens, the Redskins would not be in the market for a QB here. But I’ll proceed like it hasn’t happened by draft day.

The PICK: dwayne haskins, ohio st., QB


16. Panthers

Carolina needs help on the offensive line. Despite re-signing tackle Daryl Williams, the team released left tackle Matt Kalil. It also makes sense for the Panthers to go and get a stud pass rusher. Both are areas of need.

The PICK: Andre Dillard, Wash. St., OT


17. Giants

I expect the Giants will indeed select Eli Manning’s replacement in this draft — and this seems like the logical spot. Dave Gettleman has referenced using the “Kansas City” model for getting a QB so it’ll be interesting what exactly that meant. Does he plan on moving up on draft night to ensure he gets his guy? Or does it just mean he’ll draft one and let him learn behind Eli for a year? We’ll find out soon enough. For the sake of this mock, I’ve got them staying put at 17 and still getting the QB I think they like.

The PICK: daniel jones, duke, QB


18. Vikings

Yes, the Vikings could use major upgrades at guard and tackle. And they very well may like the options that are available to them at 18. But Mike Zimmer also loves players in the secondary. The team seemed to be shopping Xavier Rhodes not too long ago, and after him, they aren’t all that deep at CB.

The PICK: Byron Murphy, Washington, CB


19. Titans

The draft hosts this year went defense with their top two picks a year ago, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another defender come off the board here. Maybe wide receiver, or even tight end, could be in play too. But Mike Vrabel likes guys that he can see himself in. Tough, versatile, sound defenders. If this comes down to Rashan Gary or Clelin Ferrell, the choice is obvious.

The PICK: Clelin Ferrell, Clemson, EDGE


20. Steelers

Pittsburgh has the cache to pick whomever is at the top of their draft board. But it’s got to be defense here, right? This is not your father’s Steel Curtain D. Linebacker would be beautiful, but cornerback might be best available. And this kid from Temple seems to be universally loved in NFL scouting circles. He can hit, he’s aggressive, he’s a ball hawk. A little raw, but the Steelers won’t mind that.

The PICK: Rock Ya-Sin , Temple, CB


21. Seahawks

Seattle absolutely needs to trade out here. They currently hold only four selections in this year’s draft. I’m sure a team like New England wouldn’t mind coming up if they have a player in mind — plus the Pats have 12 picks. Twelve!! If Seattle stays, they oughta add to the offensive line that needs a little replenishing.

The PICK: chris Lindstrom, Boston Coll., G


22. Ravens

I’m very torn here. You listen to one group of NFL people and they say with confidence that Baltimore will fill in the holes left on their defense by the departures of Terrell Suggs, Za’Darius Smith, and C.J. Mosely. Then you listen to another group and they are certain the Ravens will give Lamar Jackson every weapon they can find to help his growth. Ugh. Can I agree with both sides?

The PICK: M. Brown, Oklahoma, WR


23. Texans

The easiest pick in this round may very well be Houston’s selection. They need a left tackle in the worst way possible. The problem may be that a real good one isn’t available at 23 and the value of taking another position is too great. So don’t be surprised if the Texans are in the market to trade up. But I’m not going to over-think this right now.

The PICK: Cody Ford, Oklahoma, t/G


24. Raiders

Oakland can come away from this first round having filled some key areas of need with really good football players. Someone to replace Khalil Mack would be a much-needed addition in the first round.

The PICK: Rashan Gary, Michigan, Edge


25. Eagles

Philly will make a smart pick — that much I can tell you. WR and RB are needs, but the value isn’t here — those positions can be very easily filled starting in the second round. Injuries riddled this secondary last season so go get the most NFL-ready cornerback in the draft in my opinion.

The PICK: Deandre Baker, Georgia, cB


26. Colts

Indy could go WR here. But Chris Ballard seems to understand the idea of roster-building. Like the Eagles, this will be a smart pick.

The PICK: Dexter Lawrence, Clemson, DT


27. Raiders

If the Raiders are able to add to their defense with their two earlier first round selections, I could see Jon Gruden getting a fun toy at pick 27. They don’t need WR so maybe they are the first team to grab a running back.

.The PICK: Josh Jacobs, Alabama, RB


28. Chargers

The Chargers could use some depth in the secondary, but the o-line fell apart at the end of last season. Getting a nasty, versatile interior lineman would be a boring, but tremendously necessary pick

The PICK: erik mccoy, Texas A&M, G/C


29. Chiefs

If you’ve listened to my podcast, you already know how I feel about the Chiefs gutting their pass rush this offseason. Fine. Here’s a chance to replace what they got rid of. I’ve read reports that the Chiefs love Jaylon Ferguson.

The PICK: Jaylon Ferguson, LA Tech, Edge


30. Packers

Green Bay did themselves a lot of favors by adding so much on defense in free agency. That decision should please Aaron Rodgers during the draft. If the front office can get Rodgers a weapon who can get down the middle of the field, that’d be a nice addition

The PICK: Noah Fant, Notre Dame, DT


31. Rams

Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters were not without their missteps in 2018 so adding to the secondary is in play here. We also heard all season about the need for edge rush out of this Rams defense. I could see them going in either direction here.

The PICK: Greedy WIlliams, LSU, CB


32. Patriots

I have no idea what Bill Belichick will do here. Does he package a couple of his 6 picks from the top 100 here and go up to get someone — a tight end, a wide receiver, a pass rusher? If he stays put, I think WR is not happening and no edge rusher stands out here. The offensive line could use some depth, but having Dante Scarnecchia as your position coach there gives you some freedom to find those players later. So that leaves interior defensive line — which Belichick covets — and the tight end spot.

The PICK: Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame, DT


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 165 (“Let’s Play GM: What NFL Teams Should Do in the Draft”) right here:

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10 Biggest Questions Surrounding Wildcard Weekend in the NFL

  1. Can the Chargers fix the problems their defense encountered against the Ravens rushing attack when the two played three weeks ago? The stars are there in L.A. That’s not the question. Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and Derwin James (and that secondary) are designed to disrupt the quarterback and make plays on the ball — they are not built to clog lanes and stop the run. Even if the Chargers know what they need to do to stop Lamar and the run game, the question becomes “do they have the personnel to actually do it?”.
  2. Is Phillip Rivers going to look more like the MVP candidate we all talked about for the first 15 weeks of the season or the guy we saw against the Ravens and Broncos the last two weeks? Melvin Gordon’s return should be helpful, and Rivers has played enough football over the course of his career to be able to make adjustments to a defense he saw just three weeks ago. But Baltimore’s defensive front embarrassed those pass blockers in Week 16.
  3. Who out-“ballsys” the other, Matt Nagy or Doug Pederson? Of course, we all watched in awe as Pederson went against the traditional grain in last year’s Super Bowl against the Patriots with his playcalling. Matt Nagy comes from the same Andy Reid tree and understands the importance of making bold decisions in this era of football. In a close game, I’d expect one (or maybe more one) decision to swing the outcome.
  4. Will Mitchell Trubisky be given the time he needs to pick apart the Eagles’ secondary? Philadelphia’s defense is predicated on its pass rush — and it has to be because that secondary has been through the ringer this season. Fletcher Cox, Tim Jurnigan, Derek Bennett, and Michael Bennett will have to make Mitchell Trubisky feel pressured and rushed. The Bears coaching staff has to understand if Trubisky isn’t given enough time to get the ball out, he can easily be forced into some big mistakes. However, if given time, the second-year QB should be able to move the ball down field.
  5. How big of an impact will Khalil Mack have going up against Lane Johnson and/Jason Peters? The versatile edge rusher is better than either of Philly’s two tackles, but Johnson and Peters only need to combine to outplay Mack on Sunday night. Bears’ DC Vic Fangio has moved Mack to the right, to the left, dropped him into coverage, and pretty much played him all over the field, and this has freed up other Bears’ defenders to make plays all year long. Mack doesn’t need a handful of sacks to have a meaningful impact on this game.
  6. Who do you trust more: Jason Garrett and Dad Prescott or Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson? Silly question, I know, but I had to ask it. This game might just be that simple.
  7. Can Seattle’s defense get off the field and limit Dallas’ T.O.P.? Seattle has a top-5 defense on stopping third-down conversions while the Dallas offense converted in those situations at over a 45% rate — top 10 in the NFL. Strength on strength. If Jason Garrett could have it his way, Dallas would grind this win out on the back of Ezekiel Elliott — and that’d be the smart way to go. But Seattle’s defense, you better believe, is going to ask Dak Prescott to make some big plays in the passing game or with his legs. Third down success rate will be a telling stat in the game.
  8. Is the Dallas defense good enough to stop the explosive plays from the Seahawks passing game? We talk about how the Seahawks have transformed their offense into a ground-and-pound attack on the ground, but yards on the ground do not necessarily translate into wins — red zone efficiency and chunks plays are two more predictive indicators of wins and losses. And it just so happens the Seahawks have a Super Bowl-winning QB, who can throw a magnificent deep ball, and has two exceptional weapons on the outside who can get open deep down the field.
  9. If not DeAndre Hopkins, then who? Ummm. I wish I had an answer here, but Houston doesn’t have much in the way of offensive weapons. You’d have to imagine Houston would like to establish the run game with Lamar Miller.
  10. Can the Texans generate an effective pass rush with just JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney? Disrupting Andrew Luck will be a key to Houston’s gameplan. And the Texans have the pass rushers, however of their 43 sacks only 18 have come from players not named Watt or Clowney. That’s about a sack a game. If Indy’s very much improved offensive line can limit Watt and Clowney, Houston might have a tough time getting to the QB.

Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 123 (“The Keys to the Wild Card Games “) right here:

Listen to EPISODE 124 (“Ranking the NFL Playoff Teams, Picking Wild Card Weekend Winners, and Predicting the Eight Head Coaches to Get Hired”) right here:

 

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NFL Playoff Predictions

In the spirit of the holidays, I want to open up by saying thank you to everyone who’s been keeping up and reading with these weekly picks — you’ve been witness to three of the finest weeks I’ve ever had in picking games over the last 12 years. Twice I went undefeated and last week I was 14-2 straight up. For the season, I went 148-75 straight up picking winners and losers; and against the spread, I won us money — 110-104-10.

Why am I talking in the past tense, like it’s all over? Well, let’s face it, it is. Unless you’re a complete degenerate, you’re not risky your well-earned money on Week 17 games that will likely feature myriad back-ups and coaches changing their gameplans on the fly as other scores and results become clearer. For instance, the Bears will likely bench players mid-game and turn their focus to keeping guys healthy for Wildcard Weekend, if they look up at the scoreboard and see that the Rams are burying the 49ers. Same with the Chargers, if the Chiefs appear to have wrapped up their game against the Raiders.

So why would I try and pick these games? It’s plenty hard enough when normal factors are at play, let alone all these wild implications from games that are happening in real time and at the same time. What I’d rather spend a few minutes doing would be predicting who’s in and who’s out of the playoffs in each conference.

AFC

  1. Kansas City (12-4) — A win at home over the Raiders is all that stands in between Chiefs and home filed throughout the playoffs. Not leaving Arrowhead gives the Chiefs as good a shot at making to the Super Bowl with Andy Reid as they’ll ever have. This one’s easy.
  2. New England (11-5) — A win at Foxboro over the Jets would clinch a much needed bye for the Pats, who’ve looked older and more “un-Patriot” like than in over a decade. The players know how important that bye is.
  3. Houston (11-5) — Yes, the Texans have definitely come back down to earth after reeling off 9 straight wins after an 0-3 start. But a loss in Week 17 to the Jaguars means Houston will wind up the 6th seed and having to go on the road in order to reach the Super Bowl. Talk about limping into the postseason.
  4. Pittsburgh (9-6-1) — If you listen to my podcast, you know how much this kills me. But listen, this is typical 2018 Steelers: inconsistent, unpredictable, and in the end, still pretty good. Honestly, this has more to do with the Ravens and their Week 17 opponent — the Steelers just happen to be the beneficiaries, assuming they roll the Bengals like they should.
  5. Los Angeles (11-5) — The Chargers have nothing to play for as long as the Chiefs beat the Raiders. I imagine head coach Anthony Lynn has a quick hook for his starters once he’s told the score at Arrowhead.
  6. Indianapolis (10-6) — This is the underrated story of the year. Andrew Luck has returned to the form we grew accustomed to seeing when he was healthy, and the Colts have a really good offensive line and defense to match. They’ll dispatch Blaine Gabbert (or Marcus Mariota) to get in. And once they’re in, they’re dangerous.
  7. Baltimore (9-7) — Last year’s Week 17 ending was a nightmare for John Harbaugh’s team, as they gave up a final minute touchdown bomb from Andy Dalton, as the Bengals — with nothing to play for themselves — enabled the Buffalo Bills to clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 1999. The scenario this year is quite similar: a “win-and-you’re-in” game against the Browns, who’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. Each year a team in a situation like this inexplicably lays an egg. You can be sure Baker Mayfield will not be giving this game up easily — the Browns have a chance to finish with a winning record a year after going 0-16. Don’t tell this team this game is meaningless for them.

NFC

  1. New Orleans (14-2) — The road the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through the Superdome. That’s already been determined.
  2. Los Angeles (12-4) — The 2-seed is their’s with a win over the 49ers. Sean McVay has a bit of a history of preferring to rest his players than play for playoff positioning — he rested Todd Gurley last week and rested everyone in Week 17 last season, which led to the Rams getting the 4-seed and not the 3. I think he knows the importance of earning the bye, though.
  3. Chicago (11-5) — Once the Rams have demonstrated that they want the 2-seed, it’d be logical to see Matt Nagy sit some starters, which would in turn give the Vikings the advantage and a great shot at securing the 6th seed — and a return trip to Soldier Field next weekend.
  4. Dallas (9-7) — The division has been locked up and Dallas is firmly entrenched in that 4-seed, no matter the result against the Giants.
  5. Seattle (10-6) — A loss could theoretically push Seattle down to the 6th seed. Fortunately for the Seahawks, they play the Cardinals, who you’d have to figure are in a rush for this season to come to an end.
  6. Minnesota (9-6-1) — I’m not picking Kirk Cousins to win a must-win game against the Bears. But considering the circumstances and what I mentioned above with the Rams, the bears probably let Cousins off the hook. If he can’t win then, we’ve got some major problems brewing in Minnesota.
  7. Philadelphia (9-7) — All the defending champs can do at this point is go out and try to win a game against the Redskins. Take care of their business and let the chips fall where they may. If the Bears decide they want to play all-out for a full 60 minutes, the Eagles will get in.

Thanks again to everyone for sticking around this year and humoring me by reading all my picks and predictions. It’s fun and I hope you found some levity in reading it. We’ll be back next week with predictions for Wildcard Weekend.


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 119 (“The Running Back Question, Wild Playoff Scenarios, and Top MVP Candidates “) right here:

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NFL Week 16 Picks

I’m going to keep my little intro brief this week. I have some advice here in Week 16. NFL games are hard enough to handicap in the middle of the season when you think you understand what every team is and all their strengths and weaknesses. Betting the last couple weeks, though — it’s almost impossible. There are a number of games this week where it comes down to which team is going to play hard — and that’s an extremely difficult thing to try and predict. For instance, Denver-Oakland will not be the matchup that we may have thought it would be if we looked ahead a few weeks ago. The Raiders have a roster full of veterans, who may not want to get hurt or have packed it in for the year, yet they have won two straight and will be home on Christmas Eve while the Broncos have just been eliminated from the playoff race, have to travel on the holiday, but are playing a bunch of young guys who may have something to prove to their coaches heading into the offseason. So who the heck do you pick??!!

Try and stay away from games like that — and there’s a bunch this week.

Last week, I went 9-7 straight up and 7-8-1 against the spread (ATS). For season, we’re looking at 134-73 straight up and 102-97-9 ATS. Let’s see what happens this week. Merry Christmas!

Santa Came!

Baltimore at Chargers (-4.5)

Baltimore runs the balls at 43. yards per attempt — and they run it more than any other team in the NFL. Conversely, the Chargers give up 4.3 yards per attempts to opponents on the ground. The Ravens will want to run all day long. The problem might be that the Chargers will play that “bend but don’t break” defense and give up yards to Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson; but at some point, they’re going to make Lamar throw it. And when he does, Joey Boss and Melvin Ingram and Derwin James will be coming for him. That too is too good to be beaten by this rookie, who hasn’t shown any remarkable ability to throw the ball. Chargers, 27-20

Kansas City at Seattle (+2.5)

Seattle’s going to run the ball and KC is going to get gashed. It’s almost best for Kansas City to just concede all those rushing yards and tighten up in the red zone and against any passing attack Russell Wilson comes at them with. Chunk plays will be the key in this one. The Chiefs and Pat Mahomes have mastered those, but don’t sleep on Seattle’s ability to make big plays happen out of the passing game. Seattle, 26-24

Cool Gifts. Thanks.

Houston at Philadelphia (-1)

Let me ask you something: Are you willing to bet against Nick Foles in a “do or die” December game in Doug Pederson’s offense? Philly’s pass rush will give Houston’s offensive line fits. Eagles, 24-20

Pittsburgh at New Orleans (-6)

So the Saints offense hasn’t looked right in a few weeks. If Drew Brees & Co. struggle against Pittsburgh’s defense, then maybe I’ll start to wonder if things are okay in the bayou. I don’t expect the Steelers to keep this close. And the Saints — at home — will not shoot themselves in the foot like New England did the previous week against Pittsburgh. Saints, 34-24

Socks and Underwear

Washington at Tennessee (-10)

It’s fitting this game is being played at 4:30 on Saturday — if either team makes the playoffs that early Saturday time slot is the perfect home for them on Wildcard Weekend. The Titans defense should get after Josh Johnson and it won’t likely take much more than 17 points to win this game. Titans, 24-10

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-7)

Dallas’s offense should get back to moving the ball effectively after a disastrous game in Indy a week ago. Meanwhile, the Bucs offense can certainly be explosive but you worry about the turnovers. Jameis Winston has appeared to have fixed that problem — throwing only 3 interceptions in the last 5 games after tossing 10 in the 4 games prior. The Cowboys defense might goad him into reverting back to bad, reckless Jameis. Cowboys, 27-16

Minnesota at Detroit (+5.5)

This is a tough game to handicap because we still are trying to decipher if what we saw last week from the Vikings offense is going to be trend moving forward or if it was simply a one game blip due to the change at OC. The Lions run defense has been greatly improved since the addition of Snacks Harrison; and this is a in-division road game, where the Vikings don’t always dominate. Vikings, 24-20

Giants (+9.5) at Indianapolis

I get it — Indy is playing well on all sides of the ball. Andrew is a borderline MVP candidate, Marlon Mack has shown promising flashes as a runner, Eric Ebron is a Pro Bowler, the offensive line looks completely fixed, and the defense is coming a shutout of Dallas. But the Giants can score and in the dome, I think Eli and Saquon will be able to generate some points to keep it a game. Colts, 31-24

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7)

Baker v. Hue, Part Two!! Cincy’s defense is not good and the young Browns know that all they can do is keep winning if they want to have any shot at the postseason. Browns, 27-17

Buffalo (+13.5) at New England

Without Josh Gordon, one wonders how this Patriots offense will look. More 2-back sets; more Chris Hogan-Philip Dorsett-Cordarrelle Patterson; more 2-TE sets? Hey, Tom Brady’s still there and he has weapons. Also, should be fun to see the very mobile Josh Allen in his debut at Foxboro against a suspect Pats’ rush defense. Patriots, 30-20

Chicago at San Francisco (+4)

Yes, on paper the Bears are much better than the 49ers. But three things make me nervous: (1) Bears just won the division by beating longtime nemesis Aaron Rodgers (and they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl); (2) long travel week with a road game on the West Coast; and (3) under Kyle Shanahan, the Niners are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in December games. Oh, and the Bears haven’t been all that impressive in road games this year — lost in Miami, blew one week 1 in Green Bay, lost at the Giants, and escaped Arizona and Detroit by the skin of their teeth. Bears, 23-20

Rams (-14) at Arizona

Yep, tell me all about the Rams’ struggles on offense and defense lately. Tell me Jared Goff is the second-to-last QB in efficiency rating over the last 3 weeks. Yes, Todd Gurley may not be right. I understand that Cooper Kupp is, has been, and will be out. Yep, yes, I know. I also know that the Cardinals have an abysmal offense and Josh Rosen lives to throw pick-6s. This is the ultimate “get right” game for the Rams on both sides of the ball. Rams, 31-10

Coal in the Stocking

Denver at Oakland (+2.5)

The Raiders’, presumably, final game in Oakland and it could be interesting — not the game so much, but rather the Raider fans in the Black Hole. Neither team wants to play this game on Christmas Eve so give me the team that doesn’t have to travel. Raiders, 23-20

Green Bay at Jets (+3)

Sounds like Aaron Rodgers will play and that pretty much all I need to hear. The Jets are feisty, but in a game with nothing riding on it, give me the better quarterback with the better weapons. Packers, 24-23

Jacksonville at Miami (-4.5)

You can’t convince me that the Jaguars are interested in playing hard in weeks 16 and 17. On the other hand, Miami is not mathematically out of the playoffs yet, plus they are a different team when playing at home. Dolphins, 24-13

Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina

No Cam Newton. No real motivation for the Panthers to be competitive. Falcons, 24-12


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 116 (“Week 16 Preview & QBs as Christmas Movies”) right here:

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NFL Week 15 Picks

We should know who every team is at this point in the NFL season. However, the NFL is the NFL for a reason. It keeps us guessing from week to week, and anyone who runs the ol’ “Strength of Schedule Predictor Machine” is bound to look foolish because in the NFL it’s “any given Sunday” or “that’s why they play the games”. Pick whichever cliche you want.

Last week was a perfect example. The Steelers in the middle of the playoff race with everything to play for head to Oakland and look clumsy in game that their opponent didn’t even really want to win. The Broncos, hearing everyone prognosticate that they could run the table and end the year 10-6 and grab the 6th seed in the AFC, get beaten by the 49ers, who’d much prefer to improve on their draft slot than win a meaningless game against Denver. Then there’s the Saints, who only defeated the Bucs after they came out of their first half coma at halftime; the Rams couldn’t muster more than 6 points against the Bears; and the Cowboys outplay and out-gain the Eagles in regulation, yet it takes OT for Dallas to get the 6 point win.

If you think you know anything about the NFL, that’s fine — you probably do. But just because you know things, doesn’t mean you can tell me who’s going to win every Sunday.

After a couple of weeks middling at or below .500, I found my groove last week — 11-5 against the spread (ATS) and 10-6 straight up. For the season (minus week 1), I’m winning money: 95-89-8 ATS and 125-66 just picking winners. Here we come week 15.

Don’t Miss

Chargers (+3.5) at Kansas City

Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Chargers need Melvin Gordon to win this game. The Chiefs have an abhorrent run defense to the point where if I padded up, I could gash them for 80 yards. The Ravens had them dead to rights last week — and if Lamar Jackson was a little more experienced and a better thrower of the football, that game might not have been all that close in the end. Phillip Rivers is more than capable of winning a football game like this — especially when his run game should be fine and his defense can be disruptive to Pat Mahomes. Chargers, 34-24

Dallas (+3) at Indianapolis

Can Indy’s defense hold Dallas to field goals? The Cowboys offense should be able to move the ball and Zeke Elliott should get his fair share of touches — but if the Colts can force Dallas into settling for 3s instead of 6s, Andrew Luck should be able to generate enough of his own offense with Eric Ebron to outscore the ‘Boys. Colts, 24-23

New England (-1.5) at Pittsburgh 

The Patriots have too many weapons on offense. Which Steeler defender takes James White when he and Gronk are lined up on the same side? Who can handle Julian Edelman in the slot? And then there’s issue of Sony Michel coming out of the backfield. On the other side of the ball, I think Bill Belichick and Brian Flores scheme a way to limit Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster with some combination of Stephon Gilmore, the McCourty twins, and undrafted rookie JC Jackson. Patriots, 34-27

No Harm in Watching

Miami at Minnesota (-7)

With all the ups and downs in Minnesota, no team is wackier than Miami as far as how they look at home as opposed to on the road. The Fins are 6-1 in South Beach, yet when they travel, they’re 1-5, scoring only 17 points a game, and surrendering 29.5 to opponents. I like the Vikings to play with some excitement on offense with new OC Kevin Stefanski calling plays now. If the Vikings hit their stride here, there’s a chance this could be the moment we look back on in January and say, “Minnesota saved their season with that move”. Vikings, 27-17

Cleveland (+3) at Denver

Denver’s secondary is beat up and their offense is completely dependent on rookies Phillip Lindsey and Courtland Sutton. Baker Mayfield should be able to push the ball downfield on this Denver defense. Browns, 27-20

Tampa Bay (+8) at Baltimore

After the emotional loss at Arrowhead a week ago, the Ravens might need a couple quarters to get going. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bucs get out fast to a lead. Let the Ravens settle in, and that defense should be able to force Jameis Winston into a few of his patented turnovers, and the ravens offense really shouldn’t be met with much resistance by the Tampa Bay defense. Ravens, 20-17

Green Bay (+5.5) at Chicago

Bears fans are so scared of this game. Can they step on Aaron Rodgers’s throat and end the Packers season? Maybe this is a new Bears team and they’ll answer the call. But I need to see it first. Packers, 27-24

Philadelphia at Rams (-9)

It doesn’t seem like Carson Wentz will play Sunday — and nor should he with a broken back and Philly’s season all but done. The Rams need a “get right” game after not looking like themselves for the past couple weeks. Rams, 38-17

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina

I don’t care why the Panthers  all of a sudden stink. Is Cam hurt? Don’t care. Does the defense stink? Yes. Bottom line — you went from 6-2 and being a fringe-Super Bowl contender to a team that won’t be in the playoffs, might get your coach fired, and will certainly waster Christian McCaffrey’s outstanding offensive season. Save the excuses, Carolina. I don’t care. Saints, 41-24

Tennessee (+2.5) at Giants

Giants hung 40 on the Redskins last Sunday. Let me remind you that was a Washington team decimated by injuries and who was playing Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson at quarterback. Tennessee might not be great, but they’ve got to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Mike Vrabel’s defense won’t let the Giants offense run hog wild. Titans, 23-20

What’s This on For?

Houston (-6) at Jets

Houston has given up the second most sacks in the league, and if the Jets were serious about playing, I’d use that as evidence to support a Houston loss here. Can’t do it, though. A little fantasy advice: play Houston’s defense. Texans, 26-13

Seattle (-5) at San Francisco

Short week might be cause for concern for Pete Carroll’s team, but the Niners aren’t equipped to stop what Seattle’s offense wants to do: run the ball. Seattle doesn’t need a perfect performance to win in San Fran. Seahawks, 24-10

“Bleep” Show Games of the Week

Detroit (+2.5) at Buffalo

Buffalo’s offense is predicated on Josh Allen’s ability to move the ball down field — mostly with his legs. But guess what? The Lions are the best team in the NFL against rushing QBs — giving up an average of 4.0 yards per game. Since acquiring Snacks Harrison seven weeks ago, Detroit’s overall rush defense has improved to 18th from 30th. Truth be told, I hate the Lions on the road, especially coming off a dominating performance a week ago in Arizona. And I hate their offense. But it’s not like Buffalo is scoring 30 a game. Defense, defense, defense in this one. Lions, 20-17

Arizona at Atlanta (-8.5)

“The Battle of Two Teams Who Just Don’t Give a Damn”. I guess Atlanta wins — they have the talent and Arizona can’t do anything offensively. It’s just a matter of the final score. Falcons, 27-17

Oakland (+3) at Cincinnati

Oakland was “gamey” last weekend. But how can you get excited to travel across the country to play in Cincinnati in December? I’ll tell you — you know Hue Jackson is waiting on the opposing sideline. No chance I pick Hue. Seriously though, Derek Carr’s been playing much better and Doug Martin — yes, that Doug Martin) can gobble up yards on this Bengals shoddy defense. Raiders, 24-20

Washington at Jacksonville (-7)

Who’s tuning in for this game? You really need to re-evaluate your decisions in life, if you willing choose to spend 3 hours in front of a TV with this game on. Jaguars, 15-5


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 111 (“The Mess in Minnesota”) right here:

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NFL Week 14 Picks

As soon as the cold weather rolls in, it’s like clockwork — games become so much more meaningful. And wins are more difficult to come by, as we witnessed last weekend. This is a tricky time of of the season because we’ve grown into our opinions about teams and we believe certain things because we’ve watched, well, a lot of football. But if you’ve really watched a lot of football, you’ll know that now is when we learn the most about teams. For example, we want to trust the Bears because they were 8-3 going into Met Life Stadium last weekend. But a back-up QB, a feisty opponent, and few untimely mistakes are a recipe for disaster. You could same similar things about the Colts who got shut down and shutout by Jacksonville, the Panthers who lost in Tampa Bay, and the Browns who probably missed out on any slim hopes of making the playoffs by losing to Houston.

My point is many teams we are tricked into believing in during the early months of the season, turn out to deceive us in December. Teams have to learn how to win, they need to endure a full season before they’re ready to really take the next steps. Yes, the Bears are not bad — heck. they’ll probably with the division and be a 3 seed. But don’t be surprised if they encounter bumps along the way. Look at the Rams from last year. They dominated until December, slowed down a bit, dropped a couple games, and then exited the playoffs at home to underachieving Falcons team. There’s a process to getting good — and some of these teams are in the middle of experiencing it.

All that to say — IT’S HARD TO PICK GAMES IN THE NFL!!! But let’s give it another shot after a so-so Week 13. I was 9-7 both straight up and against the spread. For the year, I’m 84-84-8 ATS and 115-60 straight up. Let’s get to Week 14.

Plop Down and Get Comfy

Baltimore (+7) at Kansas City

The Ravens are rolling with Lamar Jackson. In his three starts, Baltimore is 3-0, has rushed for over 700 yards, and controlled the clock in dominating fashion — holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes last Sunday in Atlanta. That stat is interesting because the Chiefs don’t typically care if they have long, drawn out possessions — they’re very happy with quick-hit strikes, chunk plays, and efficient scoring drives. The Ravens might be successful in doing what they want offensively against the Chiefs, but it might not matter if the defense gives up points. Kansas City has faced the second-fewest third downs this year. Baltimore’s defense must force Pat Mahomes into as many third downs as possible, limit his yardage on first and second downs, and make him turn the ball over. If that happens, the Ravens should be able to gobble up yards on a weak KC defense. Ravens, 24-20

Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)

The Philadelphia offense should have trouble moving the ball against a stout Cowboys defense. Look for Amari Cooper and Cole Beasely to exploit the depleted Eagles secondary — and then use Zeke to pound through the holes that will create. I can see the Eagles throwing the whole playbook at Dallas, as they try and make one last push for the division. But it’s going to be tough, and I’m sick of waiting for the Eagles of last year to emerge. Cowboys, 24-17

Rams (-3) at Chicago

The Rams have shown that they can get “gotten” on the road — and yes, I know they’ve only lost one game all season, but they were slow to get up on the Lions last weekend, the Seahawks have battled them to within one score in both games, and they beat the Broncos in Denver by a field goal. The Bears defense will try their best to disrupt Sean McVay’s offensive plans — and they probably will find some level of success in doing so. But can Chicago’s offense hang around long enough? Something tells me Mitchell Trubisky is going to get to know Aaron Donald real well Sunday night. Rams, 24-17

Minnesota at Seattle (-3.5)

One of these teams has heart. The other does not. It’s that simple. Seahawks, 24-20

Keep the TV On

Indianapolis (+5) at Houston

This 9-game winning streak the Texans have been on all started in Indy when Frank Reich opted to go for it on fourth down from near midfield in overtime. Now, the Colts come in wishing that had ended in a tie, as they now face what amounts to a must-win game in Houston, against a team with a hot QB and a running game that has been on-point. That said, the Colts are second in the league converting third downs (48.2%) while the Texans are 15th at less than 40%. That’s a stat that could factor in to what should be a close division grinder. Colts, 31-24

New Orleans (-8) at Tampa Bay

The Saints finally defeated a divisional opponent by double digits when they got all over the Falcons on Thanksgiving night. The Bucs can score and Jameis Winston has been more careful not turning the ball over the past couple weeks. Will that trend continue in a shootout when his team gets behind? Hmmm. Saints, 38-27

Atlanta (+6) at Green Bay

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers are going to play their best game of the year. After the game, reporters will ask if it had anything to do with Mike McCarthy not being there, and of course, they’ll say it didn’t. Liars. Packers, 31-27

Flip Around

Carolina at Cleveland (+1.5)

This season got sideways in a hurry for Ron Rivera and the Panthers. It’s never a good omen when the HC has to fire a bunch of assistants mid-season and take over playcalling. Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that it’d be the Browns that look like the less dysfunctional team of the two? Browns, 29-24

New England (-7.5) at Miami

Miami is not good, and the Patriots’ run game should make hay. Also, the Patriots are looking to avenge last season’s MNF loss in South Beach, and the defense looks like it is rounding into typical December form. Patriots, 27-17

Occasionally Check the Game

Pittsburgh at Oakland (+11)

The Steelers have not traveled well over the past few years — and by that I mean that the offense has a propensity for sputtering and Big Ben turns the ball over. Also, James Connor is out with an ankle sprain so that’ll be worth monitoring over the final month of the regular season. Pittsburgh can’t afford any slip-ups — Lamar and the Ravens are closing in. Steelers, 31-24

Giants at Washington (+3.5)

The Giants are playing themselves right out of a top 5 pick with all this winning they’ve been doing lately. And this weekend presents a juicy matchup for Eli and the boys as they head into a game against a beat up Redskins team, who is watching the playoffs slip from their hands. Giants, 23-20

Turn the Channel and Don’t Bother

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4)

No way the Jags show up in back-to-back weeks, right? And let’s be honest, it’s not like their offense did a single thing last Sunday against the Colts. The Titans are fighting for their playoff lives — they can’t slip here. Titans, 20-10

Jets at Buffalo (-3.5)

Josh Allen is garnering more love in the media thanks to his legs more than his arm. Expect more of the same this week with a Jets team that can start looking to 2019. Say what you will, Buffalo plays hard every week and shows signs of life with their rookie QB. Bills, 20-12

Cincinnati (+14) at Chargers 

This has all the makings of a trap game — Chargers riding high after a huge win in Pittsburgh on national television, taking on a no-name quarterback who’s missing his number one wideout. I’d take the Bengals, confidently, to cover except for one thing: The Curse of Hue. But all the ingredients are there!!! I’m probably going to regret this one. Chargers, 27-16

Denver at San Francisco (+5.5)

Don’t put me in the “I-believe-in-Denver” boat. Denver’s defense has been fine but not great, and their offense hinges upon an undrafted rookie running back. The 49ers might not be the team to get them, but someone will. People are acting like the Broncos are the favorites to make the playoffs in the AFC. Broncos, 23-20

Detroit (-2.5) at Arizona

We’ve been treated to some awful games over the last few weeks —
Giants-Niners, Niners-Bucs, Cards-Niners. But this one might be the worst of the bunch. Both defenses are capable of playing a decent enough game — the Cardinals just held the Packers to 17 points in Lambeau and the Rams were stuck in the teens for most of the game last Sunday at Detroit. Arizona ranks dead last in yards per play at 4.4 and in passing yards. With David Johnson in their backfield, they’re 31st in rushing yards. The Lions aren’t a ton better — 24th and 25th, respectively, in yards per play and rushing yards. First downs should be at a premium. Lions, 19-16


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to EPISODE 108 (“Dead or Alive: NFL Playoff Contenders”) right here:

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NFL Week 13 Picks

Let’s not waste any time looking backwards on last week (or the last few weeks for that matter). We’ve got a whole host of interesting lines this week. Four games currently on the slate feature a double-digit favorite — one of them being the Rams who are on the road in Detroit. A fifth game is at more than a touchdown — the Saints giving the Cowboys 7.5 in Dallas. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a mere one game where the teams separated in Vegas by less than a field goal — Baltimore giving 1.5 to the home team, Atlanta.

From the look of things, it doesn’t appear to be some greatly competitive week as far as the match-ups go. So maybe I’ll have an easier time picking games this week after the mess I made all over myself a week ago: 9-6 straight up and 5-10 against the spread. For the year, we’re a healthy 106-53 straight up, but have now fallen into the red with a nasty record of 75-77-8 ATS. Let’s see if we can get some much needed help this week.

Super Watchable

Minnesota (+6) at New England

The Vikings have all the pieces in place to beat the Pats — speed on offense and a defense that can get to the passer. But don’t forget who their quarterback is. Also, the Patriots are 29-3 at home in their last 32 December games. Plus, they will have Gronk, Sony Michel, and Julian Edelman out there. This isn’t a “let-down” game for New England. They’ll be fired up. Patriots, 27-24

Chargers (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

I think I’d be all-in on the Chargers if Melvin Gordon was playing. I read this week that the Steelers haven’t lost consecutive games since 2016 — but I just don’t think they’re as good as L.A. But geez, it scares me when Anthony Lynn is roaming the sidelines. Speaking of the HC, what in the world was Melvin Gordon doing playing against the Cardinals, up 28-10 in the 3rd quarter? Screw it, the Chargers defense and pass rush is plenty reason alone to take them here — despite Lynn. Chargers, 31-27

New Orleans at Dallas (+7.5)

It’s impossible to not love the Saints and their offense. They’ve got one of the most accurate passers of all time, a dynamic running back duo that also may be the greatest ever, and a WR in Michael Thomas, who’s quickly becoming top 5 at his position. Hard to imagine any defense slowing this machine up. Enter the Cowboys. They play the perfect style to combat the New Orleans offensive attack: run the ball, limit the Saints time of possession, and rush the passer. They’re capable of all three of those things. The question is can they execute. Saints, 27-20

Cleveland (+5.5) at Houston

Who would have guessed this would be a headline match-up? But the Browns are exciting and have playmakers on both sides of the ball; while the Texans have only gone ahead and won 8 straight after an 0-3 start. Can the Browns win another road game? My gut says no, but this seems like a nice spot for them to steal one against the Texans, who got off to a shaky start on Monday night against the Titans. Browns, 34-31

Throw on the Game

Baltimore (+1.5) at Atlanta

The Falcons defense has been a stepping stone for offensives all season. Lamar Jackson comes in with a chance to put up some nice numbers against a pass defense that is ranked in the bottom quarter in the league. In addition, the Ravens have run the ball for over 250 yards in Jackson’s two starts — not a good sign for Atlanta, as their run D is tied for 3rd worst in yards per rush. Ravens, 23-20

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Carolina needs to fix their pass defense. They’ve been getting torched and the Bucs are more than capable of moving the ball through the air. If Carolina is going to make a push for the postseason, they’ve got to turn things around now. Panthers, 31-27

What Else is On?

Chicago (-4) at Giants

The Giants offensive line is, well, offensive (that’s too easy). And the Bears have a guy named Khalil Mack. He should feast on Sunday. Bears, 24-16

Denver at Cincinnati (+5)

Two words: Jeff. Driskell. Road games are tough and Denver enters this one with some expectations for the first time all season. If they want to be a playoff team, they show it in here. Broncos, 24-20

Washington at Philadelphia (-6)

Philly’s pass rush should get after Colt McCoy with the dinged up offensive line he has in front of him. Eagles, 23-16

Rams (-10) at Detroit

Two simple questions: how do the Lions score and how do the Lions stop the Rams from scoring? The Rams can score at will and that won’t change at Ford Field. Rams, 38-13

Kansas City at Oakland (+15)

Will the Raiders be able to keep it “close-ish”? I’m probably going to feel like an idiot when the Chiefs are up 35-10 halfway through the 3rd quarter. Chiefs, 31-17

Throw the TV Out the Window

Arizona (+14) at Green Bay

The Packers aren’t ever completely dead as long as Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. By no means are they in the driver’s seat, but if they can win out (and the schedule isn’t difficult), they’ll at least give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Are they motivated to put a whoopin’ on the Cardinals? Packers 34-19

Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville

My one worry is how the Colts play in a game on the road that they should dominate. It’s clear as day that the Jags are done this season, and I don’t expect the players to show any ounce of fight over the final 5 weeks, except for Cody Kessler and whoever else ends up playing QB for them. But that’s why this is tricky — the Colts are not an established team yet and I’m not sure they are ready to cut a team’s throat. Colts, 24-17

Buffalo (+5) at Miami

Do I seriously need to break this game down? Buffalo always plays tough. I don’t know if the Dolphins care or not. Bills, 20-12

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

These NFC West divisional games always seem to be closer than they should be. That being said, I don’t think the 49ers have the personnel up front to stop what Seattle wants to do and what they do best, which is run, run, run. And then, oh yeah, there’s Russell Wilson who should be able to take advantage of the Niners pass defense. Seahawks, 27-10

Jets (+10.5) at Tennessee

Geez, Vegas hates the Jets. How can the Titans give anyone 10.5 points? I don’t know who’s showing up for Tennessee. As for the Jets, I don’t hate them — they’re not great, but they don’t embarrass themselves usually. Titans, 24-20


Thanks for reading. Subscribe to the Sports Talk Center blog and you can receive emails when content is updated. Also, follow me on Twitter @brian22goodwin. You can also subscribe and download the Sports Talk Center Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from: Apple iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, Google Play, or Spotify. Just subscribe, download, listen, and enjoy.

Listen to Episode 105 (“NFL MVP Outsiders”) right here:

Listen to Episode 106 (“Statement Weekend in the NFL & College Football Championship Saturday”) right here:

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