I Do Declare!!! (5 Bold Declarations Through 3 Weeks in the NFL)

Yes, the NFL season is a measly three weeks old. And yes, there is still plenty of football to be played. But why should that stop anyone from grabbing ahold of a position, not letting go, and shouting it from the rooftops — or in this case a blog?

So far, there are various storylines that are juicy and warrant some consideration for headlining this topic — “Dak will win MVP” or “Phillip Rivers is done” or my favorite “The Bears can win the Super Bowl despite Mitchell Trubisky”. All are fun and I’d listen to each with varying degrees of rationality. But I went with five other items that actually do feel pretty strongly about — almost to the point where I don’t, necessarily, view each of them as being outlandish.

1. New head coach Zach Taylor is the answer in Cincinnati.

What a difference from the Marvin Lewis regime to what the offense looks like now. Andy Dalton has been given the freedom to sling it around in Taylor’s offense — the Bengals throw at the third highest clip through three weeks. As a result, Dalton ranks second in yards passing, averaging 326 per game, behind only Patrick Mahomes. What maybe most impressive is that Dalton’s success is happening without any semblance of a living, breathing offensive line. He’s been sacked 11 times — a pace that would put him at nearly 60 for the season if this keeps up. That’s like David Carr, Deshaun Watson air. In addition, Cincy has not gotten the early season production from Joe Mixon out of the backfield, and A.J. Green hasn’t been on the field yet for a single snap due to a foot injury that may sideline him for up to another 4 weeks. And if you still aren’t sold that Taylor is the answer for this franchise, look no further than the resurrection of John Ross’s career in this offense. The “thought-to-be-bust” first round pick from a few years back has turned into the team’s most dependable and playmaking WR with 13 catches on 26 targets, 292 yards, and 3 touchdowns against defenses like Seattle and Buffalo in two of their first three games.

2. Indianapolis will unequivocally win the AFC South.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you about this. I can proudly say I was not one of those people who violently jumped off the Colts’ bandwagon when we were all blindsided by the news of Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement. I still thought they’d be a playoff team then, and now, I think they’re good enough to win that division. Why? Four simple reasons: One, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t stink. Through three weeks as the new starter, he’s top seven in completion percentage and passer rating and his touchdown to interception ratio is a solid 7 to 1. And doesn’t hurt he’s getting help from Marlon Mack out of the backfield. Second reason is that Frank Reich is a really smart head coach. In a league where coaching blunders happen by the minute on any given Sunday (ask Freddie Kitchens or Bruce Arians after week 3), Reich has moved close to the top of HCs that I’d want on my sideline. The third reason is this roster has been built the right way by GM Chris Ballard. After former general manager Ryan Grigson tried everything in his power to burn this franchise to the ground despite having a franchise QB, Ballard has put his stamp on this team by adding very good role players to the defense and re-building what was an atrocious offensive line. And lastly, look no further than the other teams in the AFC South: Tennessee’s QB options are Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill — enough said; as long as Bill O’Brien is running the Texans, I’m not a believer; and while I love Gardner Minshew and all that comes with him, I’m not sold on the Jaguars.

3. Kyle Allen can save Carolina and keep them alive in the playoff picture.

Ok, so truth be told — I picked Carolina to make the playoffs, and I even thought they had a somewhat realistic shot at making a Super Bowl run. So forgive me if I feel like I’ve been handed a new lease on life after what Kyle Allen was able to do in week 3 in his debut start of the season with Cam Newton sidelined because of a foot injury. (Message to Cam — take your time coming back, get healthy, shop for some new outfits.) The Texas A&M product was an efficient 19-26 throwing the ball with 261 yards and spread the looks around to seven different pass catchers. He tossed four TDs and gave hope to fans that in a year where Atlanta seems out of sync, Tampa Bay  can’t hold a lead at home against a rookie quarterback, and Drew Brees is hurt, the Carolina Panthers still have a shot at winning the division.

4. I know this is blasphemy, but…..Saquon will NOT be missed by the Giants.

Listen, I’m not going to make any apologies for this. I understand Saquon Barkley is seen by many as the second coming of Barry Sanders. But I can’t help that I view the running back as a very expendable position in the league. What example would you prefer I provide? How the Ravens rolled out Alex Collins a year ago to only switch over to Kenneth Dixon then to Buck Allen and then finally to Gus Edwards? All were productive while they had their respective shots. How about the 2018 Chiefs cutting Kareem Hunt and just plopping Damien Williams into the lineup, where he looked like he was an all-pro? And to continue with that example, Williams gets nicked up this year and Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy are carrying the load. Or maybe you like 2018 second tier MVP candidate Todd Gurley basically sitting out the final few weeks in December and then disappearing in the playoffs only to have C.J. Anderson roll off the couch and rush for multiple 100-yard games in December and January. Pick one — and there are plenty more. However, I will say that the better the team, the less you miss a running back. And the G-men are not a good team so Saquon’s production, yes, will be sorely missed — the dude accounted for 2,028 yard from scrimmage in his rookie campaign a year ago, scored 15 times, and got 91 passes on 121 targets. I’m not blind — Saquon is awesome and that’s why he’s already been elevated to first name status. So to frame this more succinctly, the Giants are not making up Saquon’s production while he’s out because no running back on their roster can do what he does with that offensive line and the roster surrounding him. But long-term, as the Giants get better and turn into a respectable team again (assuming this happens), their roster will  that of a team that does not require someone of Saquon’s ability at that position. My point is the Giants aren’t dead because they are without their appointed savior — they ALREADY WERE dead!

5. The Seahawks are not good.

Let me walk through the first three games of the season for the Seahawks: hosted Cincinnati in the season opener and let Andy Dalton throw for a career-high 426 yards, defense got torched, and yet they escape 21-20; traveled to Heinz Field and sneaked out a 28-26 win over a Steelers team that looks bad and played the second half without Big Ben; and finally they hosted a Drew Brees-less Saints team outdoors and looked lifeless before making the score closer in the end than the actual game was. I’m concerned about this defense — Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater, basically, had their way against that unit. And now the run game, which was expected to be their calling card, is in question because Chris Carson can’t hold onto the football and Rashaad Penny has some mysterious hamstring injury.


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5 Over-exaggerations from Week 2 in the NFL

1. Dak Prescott is the Cowboys quarterback of the future and the present, regardless of when Tony Romo is healthy.

A big win against the hated Redskins and a one-point loss to the Giants has people believing the Cowboys are more than capable of competing in the weak NFC East. Dallas still has one of the best dak-prescott-pi-avoffensive lines in the NFL and Ezekiel Elliott runs well behind it. As long as Dez Bryant is healthy, he’s a big, playmaking target for the young QB. Tight end Jason Witten is a catching machine and is only going to continue helping Prescott progress.

Reports are that Romo is getting healthy and may be ready to return in two or three weeks. But Prescott could have the ‘Boys sitting at 3-1 in a couple weeks after games against the Bears and 49ers, and there would seem to be little rush getting Romo back on the field. After two weeks against stiffer competition in Green Bay and Cincinnati, Dallas faces Philadelphia and Cleveland. With the potential of going 5-3 through the first half of the season, it’s hard to see head coach Jason Garrett messing with a good thing.

2. The Cleveland Browns have a chance to go 0-16.

A 20-0 lead over the Baltimore Ravens wasn’t enough for the Cleveland Browns to earn a victory. After getting completely routed in week 1 at Philadelphia against a rookie QB and a team that many expect hue-jacksonwill finish with one of the NFL’s worst records in 2016, the Browns looked bound and determined to put that loss in their rearview mirror. The Browns opened the game with three straight first quarter touchdowns — Josh McCown looked in control, Isaiah Crowell was running wild, Corey Coleman was showing off his speed and skill set, and the defense was stout. But even when things are going right, they’re going wrong. Seconds after their third TD, Cleveland special teams had their PAT blocked and returned for 2 points the other way. And that was the ballgame.

Teams that are historically great always have to rely on unexplainable things happening to truly be historic. Luck plays a factor at some point. Conversely, historically bad teams have to rely on luck as well. Bad luck. Like scoring a TD to go up 3 scores at home against a divisional rival then getting an extra point blocked and returned, which in turn starts a cavalcade of scoring from the opponent — and you lose 25 to 20. For example, of course.

The Browns will be starting their third QB in as many weeks next Sunday when they travel to Miami. A rookie quarterback that is. And if the trend continues, they will be bringing in a free agent to start week 4 in Washington. It’s hard to go 0-16. But if any team can join the ’08 Detroit Lions, it’s the 2016 Browns.

3. Seattle needs to change the offense or they won’t make the playoffs.

So Marshawn Lynch’s retirement was no big deal, right? That’s what Seattle fans and the team’s brass robert-quinn-russell-wilson-nfl-seattle-seahawks-los-angeles-rams-1-850x560had us all believing last spring and summer. Thomas Rawls filled in admirably last year when Lynch was hurt. Then the Seahawks added Christine Michael and three running backs in April’s draft. Surely, if one  guy can’t fill Lynch’s shoes, a combination of these five players can. Right?

Well, we’re heading to week 3 and the Seahawks offense has managed a mere one touchdown. Russell Wilson is mobile, but he’s not Usain Bolt; Jimmy Graham is still useless; and the running game is not exactly shining in Lynch’s absence. Many thought Seattle was a serious threat to make it out of the NFC this year. Forget Super Bowl — this team will be fortunate to finish above .500 if they can’t fix the offense.

4. The Chargers resemble more of the team we saw in week 2, than the team we saw implode against the Chiefs in week 1.

I don’t get in the habit of placing any trust whatsoever in the San Diego Chargers. This goes back to the Marty Shottenhiemer days of 11, 12, 13, 14 win rephilip-rivers-dallas-cowboys-v-san-diego-chargers-zvirnhvflvzlgular seasons, then one and done in the playoffs. So listen when I say what I’m about to say. The Chargers are not a playoff team nor are they a team that is
going to seriously contend in the AFC West. However……

The Chargers offense put 27 points on the board against a Chiefs defense that is widely considered one of the best in the NFL, and they scorched a much improved Jacksonville D for 38 points. I’m not saying anything more than this: the Chargers have a potent offense with weapons surrounding Philip Rivers, who is a good quarterback with gunslinging tendencies — ebbs and flows.

5. Rex Ryan will be the first HC fired this season.

It’s never a good sign when you fire your offensive coordinator before the bye week. In Buffalo’s case, they fired Greg Roman before week 3.

And if they think that’s the answer, they may want to re-evaluate the game tape from week 1 and 2 and check out the defense — rather the lack of defense.

Rex Ryan better hope the defense figures itself out — but it won’t be an easy task in the coming weeks. The Bills host the high-powered Cardinals offense in week 3, then travel to Foxboro to battle Ryan’s nemesis, Bill Belichick. A trip to the West Coast against a Rams team that has a staunch defense wraps up the Bills’ next three weeks. There’s potential for this year to get real ugly real fast in upstate New York. Watch week 10 — Buffalo’s bye week. Might be over for Rex then.

 

Feedback is always welcome through the website in the comments box or on my Twitter feed — @brian22goodwin.

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