Week 4 NFL Picks

I feel like I need to rationalize my picks for week 3. But there’s really nothing to be said. You can’t explain craziness — that what makes it crazy!! So my 6-10 mark against the spread wasn’t good, but who, seriously, picked the Bills to cover — I know it was 17 points but come on!! The Bills had a player retire at halftime a week ago!! I wasn’t much better straight up, going .500.

For the year, I’m 12-19-1 (ATS) and 16-15-1 straight up. Let’s have a big week 4, huh? Here goes nothin’!

Find a TV and Sit

Minnesota (+6.5) at L.A. Rams

The question to me is can Kirk Cousins have himself a resume’ game? He really doesn’t have one. And for the last two weeks, Minnesota luckily managed to avoid going 0-2 because the QB hasn’t been great. The Rams are dinged up with both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib set to miss multiple weeks due to injuries. On a short week, I favor the Vikings weapons on offense. But the Rams offense will not be stopped. Rams, 27-24

Cincinnati (+6) at Atlanta

Andy Dalton missed Joe Mixon last week in Carolina. But the quarterback should be able to move the ball all over the place on the banged up Falcons defense. The middle of the field should be wide open. Bengals, 28-27

New Orleans (-3.5) at New York Giants

I think this could be a fun game. The Saints seem to have forgotten how to play defense. This rendition reminds me of the Saints teams of 5 years ago when they were slinging it all over the field and couldn’t play a lick of D. The Giants offense has struggled, but they will do their best to keep up. Saints, 34-24

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-2.5)

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the high-powered Bucs offense will face their first really good defense of the season in Khalil Mack and company. I like the Bears to win that battle; but can Mitchell Trubisky do enough to put points on the board? Tampa’s defense has struggled greatly. Could be a nice opportunity for Matt Nagy to get loose with the playbook. Bears, 23-17

Kansas City at Denver (+4.5)

I don’t think Denver’s defense is good enough to take on Pat Mahomes and this Chiefs offense blow for blow. But I am interested to see how the young gunslinger handles the ferocious pass rush from Von Miller on the edge. If Miller can help force Mahomes into a few mistakes, it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs deal with a little adversity. And playing at Mile High is no joke. Chiefs, 27-23

Laundry Games (You can do laundry or other things around the house with these games on. You’ll pay enough to attention to get what’s going on.)

Philadelphia at Tennessee (+6)

If the Titans can pull off back to back wins over the Jaguars and the Eagles, people will quickly forget about the loss in Miami in week 1. The Philly offense is not healthy and Carson Wentz could be weeks or months from regaining his 2017 form. The key matchup here is how Blaine Gabbert/Marcus Mariota handle the Philadelphia defense. Titans, 20-17

Cleveland at Oakland (-2.5)

Who’d have thought this would be a watchable game? Mostly, I’m only interested in Baker Mayfield. While I certainly don’t think Oakland’s defense is good enough to foil the Todd Haley offense, going on the road is a different animal in the NFL. Will this be the week Jon Gruden’s offense puts together a complete game from start to finish? Raiders, 24-20

Miami at New England (-6.5)

Oh boy. Miami’s got team speed and can stretch the Patriots linebackers across the field. New England needs to hunker down and get back to the basics on defense. Offensively, I’m thinking OC Josh McDaniels throws a little spice into he gameplan this week. It’s been 10 quarters since the Patriots looked like the Patriots. Patriots, 31-24

Baltimore (+3.5) at Pittsburgh

With the new rules changes, you wonder if this battle will resemble past games between these two rivals or if a little luster will be gone. The hard hits might be fewer, but the desperation will be there — Pittsburgh doesn’t want to fall to 1-2-1 and the Ravens could build some separation by moving to 3-1. Ravens, 20-19

Visit the Apple Orchard

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (-10.5)

Who’s playing QB for the Niners? The Chargers defense shouldn’t have difficulty in disrupting the 49ers offense; and the Phillip Rivers-led offense should be able to score. Chargers, 31-20

Rather Stare Out the Window

Houston (+1.5) at Indianapolis

Andrew Luck is getting better and better, and surprisingly the Colts defense hasn’t looked brutal. Houston is in a must-win situation. Bill O’Brien might be coaching for his job here. The Texans defense came alive last Sunday against a bad Giants o-line. The Colts line isn’t great. This has all the makings of a sloppy, weird road win. Texans, 22-20.

Buffalo (+10) at Green Bay

Don’t look for the perennial MVP candidate, Aaron Rodgers, to make the same mistakes Kirk Cousins did a week ago against this Buffalo defense. And Josh Allen isn’t going to catch the Packers defense off guard. Packers, 30-24

New York Jets at Jacksonville (-7.5)

I don’t like Sam Darnold versus Jacksonville defense in this matchup. The rookie QB will make a few mistakes and I expect some turnovers to result in points for the Jags. Blake Bortles won’t be perfect but it won’t matter. The defense will score all they need. Jaguars, 24-10

Detroit (+3) at Dallas

After their huge win at home in primetime against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, how do the lions respond when they hit the road and head to Jerry’s World? The Lions are the better team, but this game has “trap” written all over it. I don’t like the Cowboys, but they’re at home and there’s no telling what Detroit’s energy level will be for tis one. Cowboys, 23-21

Seattle (-3) at Arizona

Josh Rosen gets is first career start — he can’t be worse than Sam Bradford. He could have a Nathan Peterman-type game and be better than Bradford. Seattle’s offense has been boring, but the balanced run attack was productive against Dallas in week 3. I’d look for Seattle to do the same in the desert. And if Earl Thomas misses a few more practices this week, he’s likely to add to his interception total and maybe add a pick-6 and a sack. Seahawks, 24-17

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